The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. This market will resolve to "Democrats" if following the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and a Democrat Vice President. It will resolve to "Republicans" under the same conditions for Republicans. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, this market will resolve 50-50. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2024 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.
Cash me out already
NYT/Sienna: Nebraska Senate 🟥 Fischer (inc): 48% 🟨 Osborn: 46% | TX Senate 🟥 Cruz (inc): 50% (+4) 🟦 Allred: 46%
What if the senate building blows up and there is no party in control? Stoinks go to 0? 🤔
@FBI
it was this guy officer
*bro explodes it to win on poly market*
The question is whether the Republicans will win the Senate with a large enough margin to overcome RINO's from Maine and other states. Removing the 3 electoral votes for DC should be the number one priority.
And make them a state or make them part of one?
It’s beyond obvious that DC should be shrunk to only around the administrative buildings, and the rest should become Maryland. This is constitutional and most fair to the people who live there. We know who doesn’t want that to happen though…making them a state instead of a city is such an unreasonable solution.
It won’t be fair
Yes it will
55-45
Democrats are not winning the senate
you wanna bet
The Democrats already losing the senate seats
West Virginia is not flipping we love our senator
Joe Manchin is retiring and a clown will replace him.
NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA lean Dem. TX and FL lean Rep. WV flips Red. That would be 48 Dem 50 Rep. Dems need to hold both MT and OH which is tough. I think OH is manageable but it comes down to MT slightly favoring REP imo. 50 Dem 51 Rep
Why risk it with Tim Sheehy, if we have a real conservative choice sticking with Jon in Montana? He`s a third-generation farmer with a real job outside of Washington farming the land just outside of Big Sandy! Jon makes a good point that Multimillionaires and Billionaires - people like Tim Sheehy - are trying to buy Montana and our real Montana values. Trump is gonna win a landslide in Montana (maybe 15 points up, just like 2020), but we`re returning Jon for sure!
Ohio is solid red.
Help me with arithmetic: now the senate is 51/49 Democratic; assuming West Virginia flips, it becomes 50/50. So what is the additional flip is expected??
The easiest GOP flip beside WV is Montana. It is currently held by Democrat Jon Tester. It voted for Trump by a margin of 16 points in 2020.
I don’t think this is the easiest seat to flip. Tester is a solid democrat, but the people of Montana think he represents them well.
Besides even if the Republicans were to flip Montana they still need to hold Texas.
As a Dem, Allred is not winning.
This is a mispricing, Democrat should be higher according to the data we have. Got this from a really solid newsletter, go read it: [link removed]
Your math is wrong. At the moment, the Dems have 51 seats in the bag. The stats only show 50 or 49, because Kirsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat, but turned on the caucus. As Ruben Gallego is leading in AZ and under the assumption that Sen. King is going to caucus with the Dems, a victory for the GOP in WV would lead to a 50-50 tie. In case Walz is elected VP, this would swing to the Democrats. If JD Vance gets elected VP, this would be sufficient for GOP control. Sorry, but you`re wrong on your math and rude about it.
When will Polymarket realize there are 34 Senate races and start a contract for Nebraska's special election?
The individual state markets show a Dem senate as the favorite. This is way too low.
With Republicans at 55c in MT and 48c in OH, and Biden higher than Trump, this should most definitely be closer to a coin flip. As I said, Dems are way too low here based on the other markets. GOP has no margin for error with strong Dem incumbents.
I love the dude that’s down 5k telling the guy that’s up 775k he’s wrong lol. I mean sure anything is possible