PoliticsMarkets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
264%
127%
44%
6 or lower4%
$2,948,092 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2$339K Vol.64%
1%
1$481K Vol.27%
4$440K Vol.4%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
Seems fairly priced
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
Consensus overconfident on prevailing view.
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
hell warm
haaaa
go 2026
if you actually look at wallet activity instead of comments you see a different picture
Brother you are the only comment
Lol
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2 · Yes
Amount
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