This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").
BEWARE this is effectively a YES Kamala market
I got baited by this so much thinking the last prediction from 518 favored Trump, so I thought these shares were basically YES Trump shares, then it flipped in the last day. Now it turns out I bought thousands of overpriced Kamala -_-
i will sell back my shares at 56 cents to the people i bought it from so they still profit from my trade, not what I intended and the final prediction of 518 was unclear, until the post they made this morning Nov 5 at 6AM saying their final prediction is Kamala
Does Trump wins 50 times out of 100, and Harris wins 49 times out of 100 count as a Trump prediction from 538?
Thank you senator, i always knew i could trust on you for the advantaged information
But at what time and date is 538's final forecast?
Trump shares on sale for 36 cents
where
"If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50." this is the most likely outcome right now...
The 538 forecast at which timepoint? On election day?
their final forecast, presumably the day of or the day before election day
if you trust 538's numbers, this market is equivalent to the probability of the leading candidate
Almost, since if you hedge it now, 538 polls still have a chance of making the other candidate favorite before the election day. You have to adjust the probability of 538 polls flip.
Micheal-B I dont understand that. Wouldnt the "other canditate" in that case be also the "leading candidate" [link removed] is talking about. [link removed]'s comment doesnt say that the candidate wouldnt change, just says the current leading candidate. But I agree that [link removed]'s version isn't what the price here should come from: I think the price should represent the estimated number of 538's numbers on last moment that will be taken into account.
But on the markets here you can get profit by playing the price action, like if we were to say that it stayed at "80c Yes" the whole time, several weeks with strong volume, but dipped to 65c three times, and immidialetey bought back up; I would say that the justified price isnt the dip at 65c, if we were currently there, and it would be the 80c level, for any time that isnt t=end. Because its so expected to go back there based on price action. On t=end of course where you cant make money of price action anymore, it should be not esimation of what 538's numbers are but exactly 538's numbers if we still keep the preassumption that we can trust them 100%.
But you could say that even if we can trust them 100% there can be an event that causes the Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market not to resolve quickly. So, the "Yes" price should be lower than 538 end estimation, because if its not being resolved quickly, you are losing money by inflation and having your money stuck here on this bet and not on stock market. I think we should look at game theory here.