The 2025 Irish presidential election is scheduled for October 24, 2025. The President of Ireland is elected via an instant-runoff voting (single transferable vote) system; if no candidate receives a majority of first-preference votes, then further counts and transfers take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election on the first count, i.e., obtains an outright majority of first-preference votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first count of this election isn’t known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Irish returning authority (the relevant official electoral body for Ireland).
Connolly has 62.9% of first preference votes after 15/43 constituencies declared - RTE
Early tallies and final opinion polls for the current 2025 election strongly suggest that independent candidate Catherine Connolly is on track to exceed this 50% threshold. Some tally projections give her a share of the first-preference vote as high as 53% to 64%.
No is incredibly mispriced. It's much more consistent with polling history, and normal turnout. Even with a landslide, Connolly may land in high 40s but below 50%
I absolutely agree I think this is underrated AF
"mispriced" but you dump your entire no stack on me at 6c... ironic
lol what when did I do that
Not sure how this could be a 'No' - with huge numbers of unmotivated voters, people are unlikely to have shown up just to vote for Jim Gavin ahead of Humphries.
I don't agree
I don't follow the logic. Potentially the lowest voter turnout of all time, and essentially a two-horse race despite 3 names on the ballot. Do you think many voters will put Gavin number 1, Connolly number 2?
Low turnout doesn’t help her whatsoever. The polling has her at 40 to 45 percent raw and 50 percent after reweighting undecideds, but that assumes all undecideds cast valid votes. With turnout likely to be one of the lowest ever, that assumption breaks down.
No is the best option because it’s just betting that Irish elections almost never deliver a clean majority on count 1
I think low turnout helps her much more than Humphries. Humpries and Gavin were the establishment candidates, and with Gavin voters more likely to stay at home, I can't see them having a significant impact. But I understand your point.