PoliticsMarkets
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
June 3088%
June 1910%
May 31<1%
May 8<1%
$302,971 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30$36K Vol.88%
4%
June 19$3K Vol.10%
6%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra). Models explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number. Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
worst keynote ever?
"agents"
Alphabet stock is definitely going to dip if Google doesn't release a competing model tomorrow. The 3.1 Pro is already way behind SOTA and it was released just 3 months ago.
I am 10k down for believing 🥲
New flash model already out pre I/O (expected). I think PRO will be talked about but could be released as early as EOM - Late as June IMO. Just my stupid opinion.
At least 3.1 Pro GA should be made available tomorrow, there is no point to postpone it anymore, and it qualifies according to the rules.
We will be eating good today
Seems unlikely
imo, the leaks about there being no new “Pro” model are probably more about branding changes than capability cuts. Google will likely push a new Deep Think, Ultra, or Omni-style flagship (anything reasoning) instead, because they can’t afford to fall that far behind the competition by only releasing another Flash model.
I think you'll be surprised by the capabilities of the new Flash model. It won't be a flagship but it's impressive enough for 3.5 Pro to be delayed
Just tell me you work at google gang
I wish bro, I'm looking at the same leaks as everyone else
The new model would be a flash-lite model which would be only slightly better than Sonnet 4.6 and still behind flagship Chinese models like Kimi. Even DeepSeekV4 holds its ground against the new flash-lite model and it's waay cheaper. Insiders have been also testing a Pro model and a new 'Omni" model. If Google don't release a flagship model this month, I would be genuinely very surprised.
Give me some more at 50 im about to hit a lick
how much do yo uwant?
put up 2000 @ 42c - feel free to take
Thank you but why what's up?
I am hedging a different bet
Gemini (3.2 / 3.5) Pro is enough. Of course they will release a new Pro model on I/O. Hello?
I deluded myself once again
things we do for money
@[link removed] This onna discount no?
Yes ;)
What’s up how do you know? In my mind just a new pro model seems inevitable still
leakers seem flip flopping. I think it may either be 3.2/3.5 (non-pro) flash speeds + 3.1 pro intelligence. I bought some may 31 i think it's a nice lottery ticket.
Nah, no pro model at I/O. Seems like it got delayed.
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
June 30 · Yes
Amount
$
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