This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
Where is the redeem button?
no way
Propose Yes PLS
Already happened
no
Someone has to propose Yes
How?
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Basically perfect confidence that this was a nuclear weapon used in December and clear evidence it's not the first. [link removed] [link removed]
Analysis from forensic physicist PhD, dod radiation levels expected for clean nuke vs weather, it's basically exactly as matched. Radiation levels had a second peak which is what you'd expect from finer fallout that it appears late. This was a clean 0.3kw nuke with a shockwave that damaged structures 300m a way, and a shockwave that was felt 500km away. Everything there to suggest with 99.99999% certainty that it was a nuke.
Well, you're right. I lost15 euro betting yes. Truth will probably come out in 10 years. A nuke was used.
Big Bad Russia and China have not used Nuclear weapons but Israel has. Cannot ignore the evidence just because this goes against the mainstream narrative.
This is BS. Israel tested a nuclear weapon in Syria on December 16th evidenced by increased radiation levels detected in Turkey and the 3.0 magnitude earthquake that resulted from the blast. How do we propose a yes resolution? The title should be “Will news outlets report about a nuclear detonation or sweep it under the rug because they’re our ally?”
A nuclear weapon was used by Israel on December 16th in their offensive of a Syrian weapons depot in Tartus. It caused a magnitude 3 earthquake and set off all radiation monitors in the region. Why haven't you resolved the market!?
US DoD has a document on clean nukes, expected fallout. Why won't anyone look!?
maybe in 25
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just look at the readings from the sensors on the island of Cyprus and Crete on December 16
Yeah radiation is reported 20 hours after the blast in Turkey and Cypress
this is a fact that will be kept silent
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What if an Iranian underground nuclear test from summer 2024 is confirmed past [link removed]?
Maybe a Russian nuclear test? I can't see what else they can do to threat Ukraine, specially after Igor Kirillov death...
fair
If a nuclear explosion occurred, the world would be over.
Russia jus carried out massive missile attacks, nuclear ON THE WAY!
For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Resolution includes nuclear tests and accidental detonations, it's not that difficult.