Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?

100% 2026

Alberta wanting full independence seems unlikely, but political tensions are high, so you never know how voters might surprise everyone in 2025.

Danielle just said on X: No referrendum this year. Going to set up a series of panels to explore it. If a petition passes gets pushed to 2026.

There will be a referendum held in 2026 which will include a range of 'good ideas' that arise from the newly made Alberta Next Panel, but a question on separation will NOT be one of those unless a petition is put forward by the public. So this market is done and will just slowly die out until December 31. Link to address here with the relevant info at the 11 minute mark. [link removed]

This is basically a 13% APR GIC right now lmao

it ain't much, but it's honest work.

Yep - one of the lowest risk ways to make a decent return you'll probably find here on Poly

Well there goes that yield - not much value left here now for the opportunity time cost risk

https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025

Be careful of this one as relates only to the scheduling, not the holding of one as this market was. A public petition could easily happen in the next few months and then it will go on the 2026 referendum. If anything, I would see that market more as a 'Yes' possibility

Yeah it's riskier than this market, but they have a LOT of legal issues to sort through, there needs to be negociations with Canada and the first nations (since Canada is basically treaty land), then there's the 120 days period to gather signatures, then it needs to pass at Ottawa, and once all is ''ready'' then they can schedule an official date (but only if they are confident it will pass, they basically have 1 shot at this). I really don't see it happening in 2025, especially since First Nations don't want out, Canada don't want to lose provinces, and Smith doesn't want Alberta separation.

I have a lot of "no" there too. Petition drives are always a lot harder to do properly than people think. Need actual signatures not online ones and the people organizing it are not a large group. People underestimate how hard getting 200k signatures actually is.

At 94 cents it's still a risk free 8% annualized return. 96-97 will make sense to sell.

[link removed] "The purpose of the referendum on Alberta's Sovereignty is to empower the Provincial Government to negotiate new terms for Alberta's relationship within or without Canada." Lefties are telling me that the Clarity Act and SC referendum rulings from QCs last attempt to leave stipulate that a referendum separation question cannot be presented as being meant to establish new grounds to negotiate terms. It can only be used to leave Canada. But - this is not the referendum question, this is the citizens petition for the referendum. A referendum is official. This is not.

I wonder if PP taking an Edmonton seat as CPC leader was meant to quash this.

The petition verification, court review, and Elections Alberta coordination make *holding* a referendum before end of year basically impossible via public petition, let alone it passing. Might get scheduling though.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025?tid=1746199523614

I understand that the "separate" option would need to win.

genuine question why would a digital petition take long to verify?

Basically, the real petition has to be witnessed signatures on physical sheets. The online one is a mailing list for after the actual petition timer starts.

[link removed].ca/recall-initiative/initiative/initiative-process/

I hope Alberta will leave Canada. Alberta deserves better

I think its time for a great adventure.

Does this resolve yes if Alberta passes some referrendum saying something like: "We really want to leave Canada but not bad enough to actually do it."

Then no, because they dont actually vote to leave Canada? I don't quite understand the question, since the Government of Alberta is required to if the vote passes.

The part I'm stuck on is the word desire in the rules. "Any referendum that establishes a desire for independence."

because actually leaving Canada would be long, I'm thinking. They could ask if Alberta wants to push for provincial autonomy and develop separate systems over decades before formally leaving maybe? I dunno.

Yeah exactly. Or the could even vote on a referendum that doesn't mean anything legally but basically says we Albertans think Ontario should fuck off.

Trump Causing Division in Canada

this wasn't Trumps fault. It was the boomers who fell for his shit talk.

Trump dupped Canada...he only wants Alberta!

lol nah, the west and east in canada has been growing farther and farther apart for decades now. nothin to do with trump

These odds are stupid

Make no mistake : bill 54, who was sneakily sent to first reading the day after the election while no one was paying attention is an extremely important bill. It's the first step toward re-introducing dark corporate money to canadian politic, it's citizien united but coming from the legislature this time. The ucp have a very solid majority and they will pass the bill but they need a smokescreen which is this extra provision that make it much easier and essentially guarantee that there will be a citizien-led referendum within 120 days of it passing. 7 month is more than enough time

FUCK YA, WE DONT NEED CANADA

Yes you do

through the US...

Let's go Alberta fuck those lazy liberals in the ass

Good way for Alberta to become the 51st state

They'd probably enjoy it lol

Danielle Smith Just introduced a bill to bring the required number of signatures for a referendum down to 177k signatures from 600k. She has enough years in public service for pension. She is not playing. [link removed]

You’re a retard

It's a sad day for Canada. I hate to see the Libs destroy this country

How did liberals destroy it?

By scuttling the energy sector, prioritizing the net-zero agenda over the economy.

I'd say that would be more of a symptom to a greater issue myself. Doesn't it make more sense that wht you're witnessing today due to Canada's broader issue that it could not be stopped at anytime? Think about the charter for example what in it actually means anything that could have prevented the liberals from doing what they're doing?