On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one additional individual nominated by Donald Trump for a cabinet-level position requiring Senate confirmation is withdrawn by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered nominated. Similarly, announcements from the nominee or Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Easy Money...
this is the most inactive market i have ever seen
Odds way to high
Cabinet
Cabinet
Sounds like the DEA pick just withdrew after Trump saying he’ll nominate him Saturday: [link removed]
DEA isn't cabinent level, but someone will probably drop out
Doesn't exactly inspire confidence [link removed]
lmao!
Breaking news: Republican Senators Express Confidence in Pete Hegseth Ahead of Confirmation
Make sure to read rules. He might not get accepted but he wont withdraw.
While (obviously) lacking first hand experience, I can assure you that no woman cheating on her husband with him in the same hotel is going to be taking a shot on the stomach unless she has been given a date rape drug. IDK what actually happened, but I knew as soon as I read Hegseth's account of what happened that he was lying. Even a nun would know this!
Anyone knows the reason behind the sudden jump?
Pete Hegseth allegations are getting more serious--the chance he is approved is becoming lower, especially after Gaetz. Trump hasn’t publicly urged him to withdraw yet, but it’s likely that Trump will hint another pick.
Insane value on "No", here's why: 1: Every single person who has been nominated to the cabinet has explicitly requested to be on the cabinet, no one, including Matt Gaetz, had a change of heart about apply to their position. The only reason Gaetz resigned was because there was litterally so much controversy around him that that was all anyone was talking about in the news. This has not happened anywhere close to anyone else nominated, and that it what it takes to make someone withdraw. My estimate for fair value would be 95% No chance. If you made it this far, please consider a tip amount for me if i helped you decide, any amount is appreciated.
You wasted my time, so I deserve a tip.
Why her stomach and not her face?
?
[link removed]
[link removed]
thanks for the list
Well there are 15 cabinet positions, I would expect someone to withdraw considering how much heat all of his cabinet members always receive.
need more clarification of this market
GROK: No, a withdrawal in the context of this market does not include not being approved by the Senate. Here's how it breaks down: Withdrawal: This specifically refers to the action where either the nominee themselves or Donald Trump (or his representatives) announce that the nominee is stepping back from consideration for the position before the Senate has had a chance to vote on their confirmation. It's essentially a preemptive exit from the nomination process. Senate Rejection: If the Senate votes and does not approve the nominee, that's not considered a withdrawal. That's a rejection. The market you're referring to is focused solely on whether another Trump nominee for a Cabinet-level position voluntarily steps back or is asked to step back before Senate confirmation.