Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

The market is completely mispriced. Let’s look at the numbers: Anthropic received a valuation of $380 billion in February 2026. Now, barely three months later, an extremely optimistic scenario suggests a valuation of $900 billion. This implies that Anthropic is expected to become nearly 2.5 times more valuable within just three months. The upcoming Series G is the final round before an IPO.

Currently, the probability of an Anthropic IPO in 2026 is seen at around 60%. This suggests an even chance that the optimistic $ 900 billion valuation represents the 'ceiling' for this market. In the alternative scenario, where Anthropic goes public later this year, it is unlikely to list before Q4. Analysts assume that even with a $900 billion private funding valuation, Anthropic will likely list at a significantly lower price.

This trend is clearly reflected in the current Series G: some of Anthropic’s earliest backers are reportedly skipping this round entirely. They are waiting for the IPO. The reasoning is straightforward: bankers expect Anthropic to list at $400 billion to $500 billion when it goes public, possibly as early as October 2026. If your entry price is $900 billion and the IPO comes in below that, you are underwater on a private investment before the lockup period even ends

Now, let’s take a quick look at BTC. The current market capitalization stands at $1.65 trillion. The 12-month low was at $65k, which corresponds to a market cap of $1.3 trillion. Even if BTC were to drop by nearly 25% again, its market capitalization would still be roughly $400 billion away from the Series G valuation of Anthropic. 50/50 is complete mispriced

Dario Amodei here: yes

Hey Dario, free your models

gn vi fh

Will Anthropic $380 billion flip BTC $1,527 billion by December 31?