December 31, 2026$165K Vol.
June 30, 2026$706K Vol.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Slovenia, Spain, and the United States. It's odd that the probability here is lower than for the United States alone.
So odd
In May 2020, the Trump administration announced its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty and ignored the legal notification requirements. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, at the time led by Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, issued an opinion arguing that the notice requirements infringed on the president’s constitutional authority over foreign affairs. “The President’s power to withdraw from treaties flows from his constitutional role as the ‘sole organ of the nation in its external relations,’ granting him discretion in conducting foreign affairs and implementing or terminating treaties without congressional constraints on diplomatic decisions,” Engel wrote in the administration’s final days.
bro how do you still have money to gamble, and why are you still betting 💀
Why are you betting if you’re only up 700$ what’s the point? That’s one dinner sir 🤣
hes going to invoke the article and use it as a bargaining chip
[link removed].uk/news/world/middle-east/[link removed]
nato will dissolves before July
what u ppl think about this right now ?
Denmark probably wants to withdraw, but if it does, Greenland will be attacked.
Hungary withdraws from NATO by end of 2025 amid Orban's pro-Russia pivot.
Turkey exits NATO by December 2025 amid escalating tensions with US.
So it becomes more than likely that Ukraine may fall and thus it begs the question, what’s the point of being part of Nato and pay heavy taxes to USA if it can’t protect Ukraine. Like who’s next on the chopping board?
Ukraine is not part of NATO so it doesnt pay taxes. USA has no obligation to "defend" Ukraine. the average american cant even point to Ukraine on the map. Other than minerals there is nothing to gain from Ukraine. most of those minerals are located in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.
100%
Ukraine isn't part of NATO.
Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, India, and other countries are all supplying Russia with troops or weapons.
The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't or can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily.
Gena, I agree. Other countries are just -tax- slaves.
The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't/can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily. Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, Laos, Afganistan, and I think India are all supplying Russia with troops and / or weapons.
15% return in 9months is not terrible ig
Why would anyone want to leave NATO? That would be dumb
Turkey just said they want to join BRICS
So what? It's possible to be in both NATO and BRICS
Why would any country leave now when things are getting even more dangerous? There's no talks in any country and the process would take more than a year. Free money
Don't they say 2025 is the year NATO collapses?
No country has ever officially left NATO. It is worth noting, however, that in 1966 France withdrew from NATO’s integrated military command structure while remaining a member of the alliance, and it rejoined full integration in 2009
Good question
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