PoliticsMarkets
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
$74,169 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Yes$74K Vol.24%
6%
RulesMarket Context
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flavio Bolsonaro e uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno: Estadao 11/04
O marqueteiro do ratinho com certeza é alguém que sabe muito de política brasileira.
You dont know nothing about the researchs and probability, it shoul be 75-25
Pesquisa mais recente dando 35% pro Flávio e 33% pro Lula, mas segundo a sua "probabilidade", a chance deveria ser 75-25 de não ter segundo turno, confia...
Estadao: Flavio Bolsonaro eh uma folha em branco e pode ganhar no primeiro turno
Bota o título da matéria completo, faltou: "Disse o marqueteiro do Ratinho", uau. Se você está tão certo disso, entra all-in então.
I'd give less than 5% chance of this happening... I'm putting some money on it
Yeah, this price doesn't make any sense...
Qual a pegadinha?
Only FHC won in the first round. The country is divided. Almost 7% white/null votes, Lula doesn't even have 40% of intentions as of january.
better than cdi
wrong dates on end...on top should be 2026
se depender do alexandre de moraes nao vai ter segundo tuno.
Add Claudio Castro, please
UGABUGA lets goooooooo
free money honestly just low liquidity and it will take too long aswell
i agree coconut, not the best bet for us rn
Fernando Morais, Lula’s biographer and friend, said he believed that if the 2026 election were held today, “Lula would win in the first round”
Nobody asked Fernando
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Eu acredito que Lula ganha so no segundo turno!!!!
Lula Vai ganhar so no segundo turno
easy bet...
Really?
Almost impossible for a president to be elected on the first round in Brazil. The country is very divided and both sides have high amount of desapproval
the estimated end date is wrong
They fixed
Fernando Henrique Cardoso em 1998
Not gonna happen. Doesn’t matter the candidate…
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
Yes · Yes
Amount
$
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