CryptoMarkets
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
$186,372 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Yes$186K Vol.5%
RulesMarket Context
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
It needs to be done eventually! Won't this cause the need to create new wallets, and migrate all the BTC from old to new wallets? Old for SHA256, new for EllipticCurve.
What now?
they gotta work their asses off!
no chance lmao
The sha-256 algorithm is essentially quantum resistant, so I see no reason to replace it. The theoretical weakness of Bitcoin from the perspective of quantum computers lies in ECDSA (elliptic curve digital signature).
Furthermore, quantum-resistant algorithms are usually not implemented as a direct replacement for classic algorithms, but are used as an addition. Classic encryption is used, and this is then re-encrypted using quantum-resistant encryption.
I don't think it will be replaced in 2026. QC is moving too slow for that.
The question here is just when the market will converge. Very low chance for a suggestion to gain support anytime soon. 0% it’s implemented the coming year.
That's pure FUD. SHA-256 is the foundation of Bitcoin's security. Changing it would be the most chaotic, divisive hard fork in history, and it would destroy the network's value. The risk of quantum attacks is still theoretical,
There is no need to replace SHA-256. No one will ever build a computer that can calculate 115,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes, but they sure will talk about it
Willow (105 qubits) is a toy compared to what breaks SHA-256. You need millions of stable qubits for Shor's algorithm to even touch ECDSA, let alone Grover's for SHA-256. Buying 'No' is literally free money
Free money, sure, but 3% is still a losing bet. I'll wait for better odds. Maybe some news will come out that scares some people next year.