This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
That idea feels completely ridiculous, I cannot see Canada becoming a US state in 2025, the political and cultural hurdles are way too massive.
Canada joining the U.S. as the 51st state in 2025 is highly unlikely, given political, cultural, and economic differences that make such a union improbable in the near future.
2% of people are fucking dumb
Only 2%?
There is no political movement or official proposal from either government for such an event, and it is a geographically, legally, and politically impossible scenario for this year.
Easiest money ever but low returns for having to lock up your money for months.
I don’t know. It could happen
How?
Should be priced about like a 6 month Treasury. 'No' below 97 is a good deal.
if it is about the same yield as Treasury, there is no point of buying this. This ultimately have some risk, and we should get a premium.
at 97 cents the APY is 4.8%, 6 month treasury is paying ~4.2% so you are getting a decent premium and in reality the risk here is astronomically small
I suppose the only true risk here is if the US tried to pull a Russia and annex territory it doesn't control
I agree with this logic but how should we convert prices to probabilities? Subtract the treasury rate?
Can't happen. I can't believe the odds.
Dollars for 95 cents
Yes, but consider the time value. You’d literally be better off putting your money in an SP500 ETF
Trump is serious about this. Doubt him at your own peril No buyers
Trump is "serious" about EVERYTHING he says... And then he just stops pursuing it. Where Bitcoin reserves?! 🤐
LOL
im sure American fools dont know this. white house is called white house because canadians burned it during the 1812 war.
The Americans demand justice. They will have their revenge.
There was no canada it was the british you fool im canadian learn your history
depneds on how u define Canada... u fool
Alberta might, I don't think all of Canada is realistic.
The entire world hates the US. Do you seriously think someone wants to join it? lol
I don't think the question being posed here is "wants to"
Please USA annex us
It won't be a state it will be a territory