This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
funny that the odds are lower than the return of jesus christ
Jadue lost with 40% of the vote.
why is this so high? the la protests are pretty much over, an appeals court let trump federalize the nat guard in california, the no kings protests are over, and the army parade went without issues. what am i missing?
don't know, seams to be an emotionally loaded topic on both sides ?
Sooooo is it going to finally happen Yes bros?
Why Yes is so low now?
Truth Social 6:55 :LOS ANGELES IS A DISASTER, total chaos like never before. Gavin Newsom, one of the WORST governors in America, finally forced to consider the Insurrection Act because he’s completely lost control. Crime, anarchy, destruction, all under his FAILED leadership. If I were in charge, this would’ve been stopped DAY ONE! Total disgrace!
This should be a 50/50 market
not really. The gig is almost over and there won't be any big escalations.
Clueless
President Trump is edging closer than ever to invoking the Insurrection Act, driven by a vision of executive power free from the guardrails, governors and generals who stifled him in 2020.
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During all the George Floyd unrest, he didn’t invoke. Remember. Many died, massive destruction, for billions, and he still didn’t invoke. The military generals asked him not to do it. He still deployed 60,000 national guards all over he country. It wont be invoked this time either.
then why did you sell?
that was a different trump, different administration, and a different situation, this is purely about power
He was told by Sean hannity letting the blacks destroy the country would win him reelection. This was confirmed by many of his advisors. Unless you think he is serious about a 3rd term I would not buy No.
This is about not having to seek reelection so he will actually do the bare minimum asked of him by his voters, which is the crush the illegal immigrant insurrection in order to at least deport the same amount as Biden.
it would be nice if he did
here is the thing: If the Marines arrive and the protestors start attack them then he might invokes the act
in my opinion it is very likely that he will invoke it. why would he deploy if they dont do shit?
he is already going too far by sending in the marines and national guards. Thats already overkill. Invoking the Act is just way too mich againsz protestors. As long as they dont start shooting the marines, he doesnt have enough justification yet
i say we are one burned car away. he hates california and he will do everything to fuck with the dems
That’s exactly what i was insinuating…
it’s pretty simple. You put soldiers there. The drug addicted violent lunpenproles will obviously continue to attack them. Everyone loves you when you stomp them out.
look at the crowds, this is going to be another round of rioting
true
Geee i wonder why Trump is currently referring to LA protesters as “insurrectionists”. It’s almost as if he is foreshadowing something…
Interesting
this bet is so undervalued, he already deployed
if he deploys he has to invoke. this shit is undervalued
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-deploy-marines-in-response-to-the-la-protests-by-friday/will-trump-deploy-marines-in-response-to-the-la-protests-by-friday?tid=1749501719702
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no but he is legit deploying the marines [link removed]
The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a battalion would be sent, but for now, the Insurrection Act is not expected to be invoked.
unlikely then he has no judicial base
rip :c
he can still send them but they just cant arrest anyone
pasted from other chat: he is sending them so that they can get involved in certain activities regarding the demonstrations, the bet is insanely undervalued
i agree undervalued but not certain. Should be sitting at like 50 cents
++
Doesn’t have to invoke, but they are sitting ducks and useless until he invokes = aggression towards them will give reason to invoke. Seems like he’s purposefully doing it this way so there ends up a reason to invoke.
thats the point. calling them to do nothing makes no sense + the likely agression to them makes this a pretty good
bet