In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
wait until the budget reflects other policies like reducing taxes on the super rich, increasing border security, ridiculously dumb but expensive ideas like the Gaza riviera or just the indirect cost of all those billionaires on payroll whose goals are certainly not charitable. I would be surprised if the budget decreased at all.
Taxes don't matter for this market it's only expenditures.
Just the roll off in old debt at covid level cheap debt in to new expensive debt is bigger than all the elon cuts.
USAID was approx .7% of the budget. Eliminate DOE? .36% A 5% cut will be strenuous but possible especially if they can eliminate entitlement waste.