On January 7, Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to replace its fact-checking program with a community-driven "community notes" system similar to that used by X (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/meta-ends-fact-checking-program-community-notes-x-rcna186468). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Facebook implements a "community notes" system for a majority of U.S. users by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be Facebook, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Initially they said "We plan to phase in Community Notes in the US first over the next couple of months, and will continue to improve it over the course of the year. "
But the page where you can sign up for the waitlist still shows a few months, "Community notes aren’t available yet, but we’ll be phasing them in over the next few months."
features rollout like this take a couple of days at most. There is no way it stuck at 40% for an extended period
They will either announce they implemented it nationwide or test it on a very small percentage of users. There is no scenario where they implement it in 30 US states, covering 40% of the population. Social media platforms (or any big tech apps) just don't work like that.
just trying to clarify, "30 US states, covering 40% of the population" is what this bet is defining a majority of US users?
no, it's my made up example
gotcha, guess that'd work as a rough estimate, given the ambiguity. Not sure how wide their beta testing will cover starting 3/18, but the more I think about it, a majority is probably unlikely... just sticking with my sunk cost fallacy for now though lol
Its impossible to know if more than 50% of the US users have the update.
50% users don't need to have the update. This resolves to true so long as Facebook has rolled out thw update
No. Read the rules
How the fuck do you plan to find out if they've enrolled over 50% of American users? If the roll-out is partial and they don't make some announcement about the proportion, is it an assumed "No"?
From Meta’s website: “We plan to phase in Community Notes in the US first over the next couple of months” [link removed]
So American-centric rule - "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Facebook implements a "community notes" system for a majority of U.S. users"
Because Facebook is releasing it to America first. Take it to them.
Facebook was made in America.