This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok-4 has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Overfitted model ranking around 60-70 by real users.
ranked 71 on [link removed] [link removed]
AGI already [link removed]