This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Arggghhhh...
Don't worry guys, we still have 2 weeks left
It's already been made, just shelved. They’ll announce it only if they need a massive stock boost or if some rival company does something huge. But before 2026? Nah. Valve doesn't stick to deadlines, even self-imposed ones.
Which stock? iirc Valve is private company
AND FUCK THOSE FRENCH FROGGY FUCKS I'VE BARELY EVER HEARD OFF EXPEDITION 33
im so glad i cant trade yet cause i almost lost a few bucks, fuck geoff keighley he fucked ms piggy and waited til the last announcement to show us some gay ass hero shooter bullshit
Have they announced HLf3 guys? I missed the game awards
Yes
This was literally free money
Kys loser
thanks 4 the free money
I believe
GUYS 16 MINUTES TILL MIDNIGHT
FINAL DAY, 24HOURS, BIGGEST EVENT OF VALVE CARRER AHEAD, THEYRE GONNA LAUNCH A ROCKET IN SPACE
why u reply FOR the outcome, yet u have NO?
T DAY GUYS, NOW OR NEVER
Nah. They missed the window for a 2025 holiday drop. 2026 is the year of the Lambda.
Let us pause to admire the YES contingent in the prediction market, those with insane levels of unwarranted conviction. They approach the complex tapestry of forecasting not with rigorous analysis, but with the interpretive dance of pure, uncut vibes. While the rest of us are busy updating our Bayesian priors and calibrating confidence intervals, these intrepid souls are mainlining weaponized optimism, convinced they’ve discovered the cheat code to reality by listening to clowns like Witkoff and Trump. It’s genuinely fascinating. They don't just place a wager; they engage in a profound act of cognitive dissonance, confusing a fervent desire for an outcome with its actual statistical likelihood. They look at a 10% probability and see a 90% discount on certainty. Bless them, they are the necessary liquidity in the market, the financial equivalent of bringing a strongly worded letter to a sword fight: performative, utterly ineffective, and guaranteed to provide excellent entertainment for the victors.
Whatever you say ChatGPT.
Tapestry
guys i'm gonna add right now, YES holders are injecting hopium hard
If the game doesn't release, I earn money. If we actually see HL3 released, I get to play it. That's a win-win bet.
And the liquidity is only 40k, so basically non existent. There is no Valve insiders, it's all Hopuim injected fans
Every time during past 10+ YEARS that haven't announced it
nice guys, it makes more sense now. But still Yes at 30% is crazy
Probability isn't 42% anyway, are u crazy? YES's should be in the 2%-5%. Ppl are on hopium