This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Criminal Court (ICC) officially announces the withdrawal of its arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the ICC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Following detailed testimony accusing Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan of sexual assault, khan was suspended.
Following detailed testimony accusing Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan of sexual assault, Israel submitted a formal request several days ago to disqualify the arrest warrants; Sources familiar with the matter said, 'He accelerated the arrest warrant process after the complaint was filed': [link removed]
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Why was this ever at 30?
What's the purpose of having an international court? Useless. Benjamin flying around. Hungary. Now US. Ridiculous. This market should be resolved already
Have you all lost faith in Trump and the power of America?
Yeah, guy has burned up all the US's soft power in a month.
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RIP no sanctions pump. Yet. Maybe they make a bipartisan bill?
Damn it. I was really hoping for some sanctions and a super hostile speech by Trump. I want cheaper No.
same bro fml
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The sanctions will destroy the ICC. The only purchase using a credit card will be food.
If the sanctions destroy the ICC but the warrant isn't withdrawn, the Nos still win :)
This is over very soon.
Easy Money, Forget the evidence! What truly matters is who holds power in this world. Its not the ICC or international law but the U.S. government, led by Donald Trump. His influence reaches far and wide, or the ICC got the ceasefire deal? No, it was him. But why propose a peace treaty while the Interior Minister threatens to leave the fragile government if the war ends? Clearly it is the perfect move to shield Netanyahu, by appearing to seek peace, he shifts the blame to "religious extremists" for blocking progress, keeping his hands clean. What would happened to Netanyahu if the war doesnt stop when he will lose the power? Nothing if the european allies of Trump as Germany, France and Poland pushes the ICC back in exhange of some of this extremists. Thats it.
Donald Trump is the chosen one. All will bow to him. Please buy more
Fool, not a single EU-institution would ever bow to a US president and certainly not the ICC which is accepted by a majority of countries in the world
How come people don't know that ICC has NO jurisdictions or legitimacy to issue an arrest warrant on Israel? This should be resolved to Yes by NOW
and still, a warrant exists.
the ICC disagrees
If this bill passes any individual that helps the ICC is going to have the same sanctions applied to them by the United States that it applies to those that fund terrorists. [link removed]
As a general rule, the US already de facto does this to ICC prosecutors.
It's very broad. It would apply to Judges, witnesses, any organizations that contribute research, the janitor, anyone that funds it, etc. And it includes secondary sanctions. Anyone that helps these people avoid sanctions is likewise subject to sanctions.
I am thinking that maybe I jumped the gun here. Once Trump comes into office he will impose sanctions and the odds of 'Yes' will probably rise. I would still bet on 'No' but I am not sure it's a good entry point now.
thanks for sharing
then just buy "yes" now and sell at the top
It's really hard to time the top. And I think this will resolve to No eventually. But there is probably money to be made on what you suggest in other markets as well.
Tick tock
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Appeal of “Decision on Israel’s request for an order to the Prosecution to give an Article 18(1) notice” (ICC-01/18-375) ICC-01/18-401 13 December 2024 | Other participants | Appeal
Why is yes so high? Has the ICC ever withdrawn a warrant ever? (Except in the case of the indictee’s death)
The ICC has only withdrawn an arrest warrant in one case, involving Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta in 2014, due to lack of evidence. In contrast, in the case of Netanyahu, there is overwhelming evidence against him.
Well, the ICC has never drafted an order against such a powerful individual. Let's not forget that although USA has withdrawn itself form the Rome statute, America maintains extreme influence. With the change of administration Netanyahu is no longer a political pariah, an extremist warmonger, but is now a savior for his country. It is impossible that the ICC does not recognize this new world order and, therefore, withdraw the arrest warrant. Simply put, this is no longer a law decision, but a political one; and current politics benefit Netanyahu.
like what (beyond biased media reports)?
chatgpt
Lebanon's deal will let ICC backtrack on their actions