This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran explicitly claims responsibility for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo that occurred on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the Iranian government, military, or intelligence services. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
State Department orders all U.S. embassies to review security ‘immediately’ - The Washington Post
Because several attacks outside middle east. Oslo beeing one example named in the article.
Police say evidence points at Iran.
Why is this so low. Iran is pretty likely to be involved and they have no reason to not own up to it at the right time. They want to show their capacety to harm the west.
Alireza Jahangiri (Irans ambassador in Norway) said they got nothing to do with the attack (They will probably never say they did). france24 .com/en/europe/20260311-norway-arrests-three-brothers-over-us-embassy-bombing-in-oslo
Why Iran and not some random muslim bozo living in Norway?
iran paid foxtrot to do it
Probably