This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
damn okay seems final this time pakistan just announced that they've finished the final deal draft in which both sides will be signing this weekend
War coming
"Iran has not yet approved any text for an agreement - State media outlet Fars"
Iran saying they're not aware of no deal lmao
I love TACO!
Trump said he had called off the planned strikes on Iran.
West Part is closed and 2 of 5 airports are closed fully
maybe good time to exit since us forces completed their strike
They are abnormal, it is written in the rules that it is considered "Yes" if a large area of the country is closed. In Iran, there was an official statement about the closure of airspace in the entire western region of the country, 2 out of 5 airports in the country.
Trump will start bigger war→Trump give diplomacy a chance after Gulf beg →Trump Win😂
Trump, Sempre amarela. o pior presidente que os EUA teve em decadas.
In a new series of strikes against Iran, the U.S. targeted air defense systems, radars, and drone control centers. Axios correspondent Barak Ravid reported this, citing sources.
Sempre a mesma historia. kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
There currently is only one Capsian Airlines flight in North Western iranian Airspace and one Mahan Air over East Iran, that just turned of its transponder. Tehran airports have been open just a few moments ago. Surely its just a question of hours till they announce no flights as Iran will be forced to reply, as they threatened.
A series of explosions rocked several regions of Iran, according to the Mehr news agency.
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: A U.S. official says the strikes on southern Iran will include ‘hundreds of targets’ and continue for hours
Southern Iran = NO airspace closure
Where is your logic
Agreed. It seems they won’t do that, otherwise they would have done that already
from what ive seen Iran warned it will hit U.S. bases and Israel if attacked. If they strike Israel, the inevitable counter-fire will likely force a shutdown of regional airspace
Read the rules again twin
Lmaoo war has restarted and Yes at 20c
Congrats on your loss.
The U.S. military has begun carrying out additional strikes against targets in Iran, per an order from the Commander-in-Chief, CENTCOM announced.
US is striking already, but Iran doesn’t close airspace
Reports from Iran: A power outage has reportedly occurred in Bandar Abbas.
Nothing happens all the Tehran it’s happened in 8 July just sell at No don’t waste your money 😎👍
Tonight will be on a far larger scale according to reports
Iranian Air defense activity reported in western Tehran -State media
It’s 8 July was
Gulf sources report: “Another squadron of U.S. Air Force aircraft has just departed from the U.S. base in Jordan, heading toward Iran.” In addition, explosions have been reported in Tehran.
It’s July 8
The attack has begun: Reports of explosions in Iran.