This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Special forces and intelligence operations in Iranian territory which are not intended to establish territorial control will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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resolve NOW
This should be resolved
We still thinking no? I do not genuinely see any indication towards israels plans of invasion
IDF chief reveals Israeli ground commandos operated inside Iran during war
No intention to establish control
This needs to be resolved YES now. "Ground Commandos Operated Deep Inside Iran During 12-Day War": Israel [link removed]
[link removed]
gonna be hard to invade so soon because of the landscape, but 1-2% odds seems worth it
Those Hebrew terrorists can't even fight hamas, a bunch of guys running around in t shirts and jeans with home made rockets. How are they going to invade Iran?
arabs are different, they would rather die than surrender. Persians in the military are just there because theyre being paid. Not saying itll be easy, but the persian military and irgc are nothing like hamas/hezbollah/houthis/taliban
Four sources said it is now increasingly likely that Israel will launch a solo military operation against the Fordow Nuclear Facility, according to Reuters. It is not clear whether such an operation would involve bombing, ground forces, or both. [link removed]
Initial reports from Ynet of a possible ground assault ongoing against guards at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Central Iran. [link removed]
"Special forces and intelligence operations in Iranian territory which are not intended to establish territorial control will not qualify."
This is so fucking retarded and makes this market unresolvable. How would Israel invade Iran. This is physically impossible.
Why else would they invade lol. Of course they want territorial control of wherever they invaded.
what Im trying to say is that according to the contract a special operation attack on the facility does not constitute an invasion
Just rang up Big Nettyyoohoo he’s polishing the tanks as we speak. Boys, we’re so back.
Rumors about Israel started.. mmm
I have found a value bet Will the US strike the Fordow nuclear facility before July For me it should be sixty NO instead of forty My opinion is NO as there are many factors that decrease the likelihood of this happening see the rules where the attack must penetrate and not be neutralized and that underscore that the attack is unlikely now Key Technical Limitations Fordow is a reinforced underground facility protected by several meters of concrete and rock designed to withstand conventional or drone attacks Attacks with conventional missiles kamikaze drones or normal aerial bombardment would likely be intercepted or insufficient to neutralize Fordow
do you feel like an idiot now after posting this everywhere?
the person creating these market rules obviouly is not aware whats going on in the middle east now.
I think this guy is extremely aware what is happening in the middle east, but an invasion is EXTREMLY unlikely as there is much more needed for that