This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 1, 2024 and August 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
🚨🚨Scoop: Israel told the U.S. that if Hezbollah harms Israeli civilians as part of its retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander, the IDF's response would be disproportionate, Israeli officials told me. My story on @axios[link removed]
does this count? [link removed]