GeopoliticsMarkets
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
June 305%
March 31<1%
April 30<1%
May 31<1%
$1,414,110 Vol.
May 31, 2026
June 30$87K Vol.5%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory durring the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify. Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Proposal, please
Crazy stuff.
why not US ground operation in Iran ? i would buy yes
Asking the real questions 😂
If the deadline is exceeded and U.S. strikes on Iranian energy plants and railways are carried out under Trump, the probability of Israeli ground activity on Iranian soil would become considerably high.
Foreign reports have claimed that Israeli commandos participated in the operation. However, an IDF source stated to the Post that these reports are completely false.
[link removed]
[link removed] denial
Wait a few hours my friend:)
Credible Israeli sources are denying this and it won't make any sense. You think Americans are incapable of pulling this without help?
Why would people believe that hundreds of US special forces need Israeli commandos to hold their hands for a rescue mission of an American pilot?!
so buy no and stfu
I am buying no. Enjoy the loss.
love you honey
Foreign reports have claimed that Israeli commandos participated in the operation. However, an IDF source stated to the Post that these reports are completely false. Enjoy
Is it a yes?
easy yes
Buy more then
ITS A YES! WILL PREPOSE AT THE END OF THE DAY
אמרו שהשתתפו רק במידע מודיעיני לא?
They also said that two special operations units were involved (76 and 51)
Ok
is it the end of the day yet? :)
Source says Israeli commandos helped rescue US pilot in Iran - Iran International
Israeli sources flatly deny this and it doesn't make sense. Ther are hundreds of US troops and no need for Israeli help
iran int is never wrong but israel officialy might just deny this as they usually rather trump have the spotlight
so this likely will be no
Yeah, with intelligence
[link removed]
Fucked again by the unpatched Polymarket exploit where attackers can cancel other users' limit orders at will
I've lost lifechanging amounts of money to this shit multiple times over the past month, and Polymarket refuses to acknowledge this exists much less do anything to patch it.
I presume you had a bid that would have been filled? How much/what price?
Ah that fucking sucks
Escalating ladder sells for ~1000 shares of YES. Filled up to 69c, partially filled at 74c, and then the exploiter hit and everything above that was involuntarily cancelled (most of the order was at 79c, the guy buying bought @ 81c average, so I am absolutely certain I got fucked by this)
It's happened to me like a dozen times during the past month, and several times before that. Again, robbing me of *multiple* life-altering fills. I initially thought it was something I was somehow doing wrong, but now I've seen it happen on big frontpage markets and other people complaining about the same thing happening to them. It is a real unpatched Polymarket exploit that they refuse to acknowledge or do anything about. Exploiters can just involuntary cancel everybody else's orders, whenever they want, at any time. It's crazy this isn't a bigger deal.
Could these markets you got screwed in be Sports markets or others related to an event with a set date and time start/happen?
What's the exploit? Can you elaborate for a polymarket noob :p?
No, all world events or tech markets during major happenings, a variety of them of all different natures. I am aware of "Added Context" cancellations, this is not that. In this, you get Notifications saying "Limit Buy/Sell Failed". The Notification used to link to polygonscan for the transaction the exploit hit, but I now notice they've removed that...
If you leave a buy or sell limit order on the book, and an exploiter decides to target that market, then your order gets involuntarily cancelled for you. And the worst thing is this only happens during major swings, so you miss it, and the exploiter can use the cleared book to get his orders filled instead. It is so much more disasterous than it sounds, it basically stops you from selling (or buying) during major moves that might reverse later, and now (as I have here) you've missed it and are fucked.
the bug is a disaster, but if it makes you feel any better, the price swings in question were very likely fake and only caused by the exploit scammer cancelling everyone's orders . hopefully gets fixed soon in any case
No someone there actually bought a large amount of YES up past 80c. Money and shares actually moved at that level.
Never…
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
June 30 · Yes
Amount
$
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