If the total precipitation in Downtown Los Angeles on any day between January 9 (inclusive) and January 17 (inclusive), 2025 is greater than 0.0 inches according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), then this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure under "PRECIPITATION) (IN)" when the "Daily Climate Report (CLI)" for "Los Angeles Downtown" is selected under "Observed Weather" at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=lox.
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not paint not rain
[link removed] giving 4% chance of rain !
NEW UPDATE FROM [link removed]
all days are 0% chance of rain except thursday which is 2%. Treating these as independent events. 1 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 0.98 * 1 gives a 98% chance of NO rain in LA. nice 12% edge for no buyers
Maybe the U.S. gov can use HAARP to help a bit..;)
Update: According to [link removed] there is a 0.01% chance then next 2 days and 0.04% chancee on the thursday with 0% chance on all the other days
again treat these as independence with some degree of variance you are looking at the 0.92 - 100% range. [link removed]
Probabilities of it not raining each day = 0.98 on 10th , 0.97 on 11th , 1 on 12th , 1 on 13th , 0.99 on fourteen , 0.97 on fifteen , 0.87 on sixteen , 0.98 on seventeenth (SOURCE: [link removed])
sorry* 78% chance of it not raining
Your mistake is that these events are not independent at all. A rainy day is much more likely to be followed by rain on the following days, and vice versa.
[link removed] accounts for that when determining the chance of rain on an individual day..
Wow, I could do markets like this all day.