This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is arrested between July 22 and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What a scam. My mom’s gonna be angry
Unbelievable. "House arrest" and "arrest" are not the same thing.
Unbelievable and completely wrong. Same on you, Polymarket.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes justified the measure using Art. 319, VI (recolhimento domiciliar) plus electronic monitoring, which is technically a precautionary measure, not a formal arrest order under Art. 317
As much as I wanted this entire flawed process to be cancelled and reviewed by really serious judges, let's face the reality, he's under arrest, deal with it
BINGO. I've just checked the Court Decision. The text makes clear that a preventive arrest would only occur if the home confinement conditions are violated. So, he is not in custody following a preventive arrest decree. The text explicitly cites Article 319 CPP, which governs precautionary measures other than arrest.
Haha, just for fun.
In the petition you sent me, the dispositive section of the decision makes it clear that the measure imposed is “home confinement” (recolhimento domiciliar), provided for in Article 319, item V, of the Brazilian Code of Criminal Procedure (CPP), i.e., a precautionary measure other than arrest. The text contains no: Decree of preventive detention (Article 312 of the CPP) Nor any mention of house arrest as a substitute (Articles 317 and 318 of the CPP). This shows that the Supreme Court did not change Bolsonaro’s legal status to “under arrest”; it only restricted his movement through a precautionary measure.
Brazilian attorney here. Quick legal note on terminology: Under Brazil’s Code of Criminal Procedure (CPP), “arrest” (prisao) is a specific legal status that follows a valid decree of preventive/temporary arrest (arts. 283, 312/313 CPP), executed by law enforcement and generating an official custody/arrest record. “Home arrest” (prisao domiciliar) exists in Brazilian law only as a substitute for preventive arrest (arts. 317/318 CPP). In other words, it is still imprisonment, but it presupposes that a preventive arrest was first decreed. By contrast, “home confinement/curfew” (recolhimento domiciliar) is a non-custodial precautionary measure listed among the “medidas cautelares diversas da prisao” (art. 319, V CPP). It restricts movement but does not convert the person’s status into “under arrest.” Media often translate any full-time confinement as “house arrest,” but in Brazilian law that wording matters. Since this market says resolution depends on official information from the arresting government/law enforcement, Polymarket should look to the formal classification in the STF order and docket. Unless the order expressly decreed “prisao preventiva (substituida por prisao domiciliar)” under arts. 317/318, and there is a corresponding arrest/custody act, the measure is not an “arrest” under Brazilian law; it is a precautionary measure under art. 319. In that case, this market should resolve NO
You nailed it.
Yes, you are absolutely right. I believe Polymarket will judge it correctly.
Bolsonaro is solely confined to his home but not declared as arrested by Brazilian Authorities. Hope Polymarket keeps its integrity and let it resolve to a No.
u are correct, brah.
I think Polymarket has already settled this bet, and unfortunately, they marked it as “Yes.”
they did the same shit with zelensky wearing a suit market. It resolved to 'No' even tho it was marked yes
No one can be imprisoned without a trial.
im sorry to tell you, brother. that is in fact false. in america, you can be imprisoned without trial.
The market’s resolution criteria say it will use official information from the arresting government and law enforcement as the primary source, meaning Brazilian legal definitions, not Polymarket’s own reinterpretation, should apply.
Since the market explicitly states that resolution depends on "official information from the arresting government and law enforcement," and given the clarity of Brazilian law distinguishing these concepts, Bolsonaro being placed under "house arrest" would not equate to an official "arrest" under applicable Brazilian statutes.
It’s a suit
One of the most needless clarifications we've had in a while
andrew tate the same case!
Wasn't in similar South Korea market house arrest wasn't enough to resolve the market?
the oracle guys don`t care that much about consistency
It is same rule as andrew tate market
yeh it's a house arrest lol nobody is arresting him
Worth noting that house arrest doesn't count towards resolution...
Tem isso em lugar nenhum nao.
The same thing happened in a similar market (I think it was the one regarding the former South Korea president or first lady) and Polymarket issued a clarification that house arrest wouldn't count towards resolutions
What if his arrest is decreed, but he gets a HC, some other judicial chicanery, flees or hides etc, in other words something that prevents his physical arrest?