PoliticsMarkets

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

$258,018 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Yes$258K Vol.

26%

RulesMarket Context

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify. If the policy is enacted through another official mechanism, including but not limited to a mayoral executive order, local legislation, or state law, and goes into effect by the resolution date it will qualify. Orders that apply only to one lease term (e.g., 0 % on one-year but > 0 % on two-year), apply only to specific unit types (e.g., hotels or SROs), or relate to non-stabilized units will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions — such as exclusions for specific categories of rent-stabilized units (e.g., hardship exemptions, temporarily exempt buildings, or administrative carveouts) — will still qualify as long as a general policy of 0 % rent adjustment for both one-year and two-year renewal leases on rent-stabilized apartments and lofts is in effect citywide. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will immediately resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official Rent Guidelines Board materials.

Holders

iamrhadoPapermarket22d ago

the chances is going to def increase after/during the twitch session today. bank on it!

iamrhadoPapermarket22d ago

thanks for the news

aenews2Papermarket2K Yes35d ago

Breaking News: Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push to freeze rents for nearly one million New York City apartments cleared a major hurdle. - New York Times

iamrhadoPapermarket22d ago

Thanks for the heads up

princessbubblegumPapermarket46d ago

What happened today?

princessbubblegumPapermarket50d ago

Please no please no please no

0xf27de6607Cbd11071Papermarket108d ago

YES is massively overvalued. Even if Mamdani freezes the rent for 1-year leases, this market resolves to NO. The market resolves to YES only if Mamdani freezes BOTH 1-year and 2-year leases, which never happens.

SverdlovPapermarket114d ago

My haters become my waiters at the table of success

rontro28Papermarket139d ago

Hey guys, lets never forget: his aunt had to endure mean looks after 9/11. Tip me, if you are a Muslim. You have to, or Islam will not take the world

Ankh-ZzQ-111Papermarket139d ago

Anyone help me with 0.52 cent,,, thanks God bless you

vpb11Papermarket144d ago

"NYC Mayor Mamdani hints city may seize buildings from landlords who repeatedly break housing laws-LR"

f2hf84hg52h5Papermarket81K No156d ago

@macrotrading, thank you for the liquidity. Best of luck at the rent guidelines board vote in May on the 2 year lease part of the bet, and not having it get stayed by the courts through the end of the year if they try ;)

0xf27de6607Cbd11071Papermarket139d ago

what if he's an insider?

XiJinProfitPapermarket139d ago

Ur in trouble

RoemanPapermarket139d ago

Bro nervous

0x4d74e07e3d1BC8beE7FE8ab118545a37a53904f5-1761752718693Papermarket138d ago

you sure he is not insider ? xd

f2hf84hg52h5Papermarket81K No124d ago

There's no such thing as an insider here. Either the rent guidelines board will attempt to push through both a one and two year freeze, in which case there will be an immediate stay by the courts, likely through the end of the year given how slowly the court system moves, or they won't attempt to push through the two year part. There's no "insider" that is going to determine either.

overlay69Papermarket183d ago

Please note that historically, the RGB has never voted for both 1Y/2Y rents being frozen together. When Mamdani cites DeBlasio freezing rents, he only refers to 1Y rent freezes. Two year rent freeze would be nearly impossible to attain since inflation is high, and a zero percent increase will only push real estate prices lower. Also, the previous mayor might fill the RGB with his guys, which is an added risk. Safe to say, No is a good bet. If you like this analysis, please do tip me. Thanks!