Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?

Official (confirmed): 50.78% (9.46% margin gap). Good always defeats evil.

Source please

I don’t really know what yes holders are waiting for at 98cents

free money.

time is ticking, with change in policy they are in no hurry to finish counting before far into next year :/

Islamists dont do elections, fools. Mamdani will not finish the count, because he doesnt want to drop below 50%. But this market will resolve to NO anyways, as soon as it expires.

I find calmness in the knowledge that the system doesn’t work

Whats going on with this? When do the results come out? N-

I-

The vote count ended on the 24th and the results have been released. Why isn't it over yet?

Source?

Grok

Ask him about the absentees and the letter votes

fuck uma😀

How the fuck didn’t they still count it?

theres no way it goes past february 28 2026 and it auto-resolves to no, right? haha

3rd world democracy, every election the same bs

It has some chance

I wonder if there are any confirmations to the rumors that mail-in votes are overwhelmingly in favor of Cuomo

If you consider the demographic of absentee voters, it's likely in favor of Cuomo

Someone alrady calculated that Cuomo needs only 54% of mail-in votes to push Mamdani down below 50%.

56.5, give or take.

Wish Cuomo had a chance cuz I'd bet big on "No". However, let's do a little verifiable math with a dab of statistics, & current/historical data. Let's assume the remaining votes are 145,000 (as reported by most sources). Mamdani needs just ~42% (approx. 61,000 votes) of the remaining ballots to stay at least 50.01%. Cumo needs ~58% to drag him to 50.00%. The Problem: 96% of remaining votes are in Mamdani boroughs (Brooklyn 35%, Manhattan 28%, Queens 23%, Bronx 10%). Staten Island (Cuomo's only lead) is basically done. The Neighborhoods: Looking at the NYT data for the ~200 neighborhoods outside Staten Island, Cuomo has majorities in only about 50 of them. Mamdani dominates the other 140+ -- most by huge margins. Even if you max-pack every possible absentee into Cuomo's limited pockets of support, it doesn't help. History: After 90% counted, NYC absentees never swing more than 3 pts from borough trends -- never -- and when Dems split, absentees lean more progressive (plus 1-5 pts). A 9-10 pt swing against the trend has literally never happened. BoE said yesterday the count is running smoothly with no reported issues (CBS/WaPo). A 9% swing would scream anomaly (i.e., error or fraud) and trigger audit/delays -- they'd have to announce problems. They haven't. BoE is nearing the finish line; unofficial 100% is expected soon (possibly Friday, Nov 21), with certification Dec 1.

Thats why the odds dropped to 90 cents for over 50 and rose to 10cents for No :)

You totally forget or ingore, that you never had an election with this kind of demographic vote disparity (white older democrats voting massively 65+% for cuomo) of splitting the democratic voters. Those white and non-white and young and old democrats vote the same democrat candidate in the last elections. But now, you got two democrats and they split the normally homogenous democrat voters. Your simple linear comparison is just leading you into the wrong here. A less than 9% swing for cuomo is very very unlikely. I am telling you here for your best, mate. sell before you cant. Dont be even more stupid, ook at the prices, you cant buy cheap NO anymore, dont be retarded.. Take a small loss, better than loosing everything! I am seeing your amateur analysis here, take the help, mate, you need it

95cents is the highest youll be able to sell, 5cents is the lowest youll be able to buy. You will never see better prices again. Better reduce your loss now.

Cuomo did "better" with white voters in the election than he did in the primary. Roughly 30% of white voters cast their ballots as mail-in. I like my odds here. A LOT. I know @[link removed] has some good data to give him a lot of confidene on a pretty big bet. And I respect that. But my relatively small bet has a huge payout if I am right... And I really believe I am right. I could have cashed out like 3x yesterday but I did not. I like the 45x payoff when the mail-ins oppose Mamdani by 56.5% or more. :)

@[link removed] just took the public data from past elections. In past elections liberal old white people that make up most of these outstanding votes always voted democrat just like the rest of their diverse districts. But he completely ignores, that old white people voted different uniquely to this election, unlike any other NYC election before. So his elemtary school level projection and comparison of past data is bullshit, it might break his neck

@Nouveau, will you sell the entire bag at 0.90, i'll deploy some liquidity, if you're positive?

0.96 is not attractive still

@Nouveau, nobody wants to buy your bag

Does anyone know when this will end?

It's just one 93 year old woman counting 145,000 votes by hand. She has lost count 4 times and had to start over.

HAHA! Probably not far from the truth!

you guys in the US should really get your act together when it comes to counting votes tbh. the election was like a week ago and we still don't have final results........

This is very very low on a list of things we need to do better. Pretty shite at almost everything over here. It is incredible we have healthcare... Oh wait...

Mamdani might have a strong chance, but it will depend on voter turnout and how well the opposition mobilizes in the final stretch.

If past NYC BoE races are any indication, you shouldn't expect final certification before late November or early December. They've consistently followed that timeline.

Of course, its possible (just a guess) they could release another batch of counted votes to satiate public interest, but its not a guarantee. I couldnt find any data regarding that.

Last time think it was released 29th Nov

active military personell, white landlords and old people with holiday homes on florida, those are the voters whos ballots are no counted late. and even if they voted "progressive"/democrat in every previous election, they now pretty much all voted sliwa/cuomo.

better sell your shares now or buy a million shares on NO as security old landratte

It will go to no in february or it will go to 50%. Check the statistic on white voters above age 45. Then you will understand why smart money is buying NO or has sold YES.

When are they counting the last votes? I dont wanna have to look at the fuckface Zohran Bin Laden anymore xD

Good has defeated evil.

Having evil confused with good, has cost you 2k so far. You think islamists are your friends? Look at your brothers in Sudan.

2K is chump change; it's all relative. Another incoming $400K deposit. Oh, and i am an atheist. Meaning, I judge Zohran by his character and his record, not his looks nor his religious beliefs, as should you.

The mail in voters in New York are old white people who all voted Cuomo, see [link removed]

Let's hope so! In a different thread below (a few days ago) is my statistical analysis: I reviewed all 228 neighborhood datasets from the NYT, the borough-level results, and the remaining 141-145K absentee ballots. The conclusion points to a very high-probabilistic outcome based entirely on empirical evidence, with no subjectivity. Take a look. Cheers mate.

You know people didnt vote in the same Democrat/Republican pattern. This time the rich/older Democrats vote Cuomo with 70+%, which is most of these remaining ballots, so your "empirical evidence" is worhtless.

Last opportunity to sell, mate

dude with 2 million in volume to earn -2k shouldn't flex his analysis everywhere.

after this resolution you will be have -1k lol

btw, we can wait until 17th November

Believe me, I would! I don't care who wins. I could throw $30K on "No" as a hedge right now and potentially make $1M, but this isn't about money; it's an intellectual exercise based on objective analysis. Buying "No" right now is the equivalent to gambling against a guy who is counting cards. Set emotions aside and let the data speak. A deep dive into NYC's current and historical data shows a clear, consistent trend that has never deviated. NYC has seen this pattern before, even in more extreme cases (e.g. covid). Every time the absentee outcome after 90% reporting matched what the data signaled. If I had doubt I'd sell and go "No", but the data is crystal clear. No one has countered my points with verifiable evidence -- hunches don't count. Others suggested I feed all available raw data into top AI models -- yup, they all agreed with my conclusion, some even more firmly. Try it yourself. It's a 99.9% certainty Mamdani ends above 50%. My prediction is still: [link removed]%. The money I use here is expendable; I have a few accounts; this is all play money. My data dumps aren't to scare "No" voters but to give informed insight. I'm already 100% confident this resolves to "Yes". It's literally free money; just like in 2020 when many ignored empirical evidence and lost big while others, like me, made fortunes. Right-wingers bet their life savings on Trump's lies. It is what it is.

the choice of words shows that you have no idea what you are talking about. once it crashes, you have no time to hedge anymore. you will loose 60k, gonna be fun

Says the guy who is still too deathly afraid to bet against me. So, you're welcome for that win I handed you! And we will both always know, I did the homework so I could allow you to enjoy that trickle-down handout ♥♥♥ bye for good.

lol you think your elementary school level prejction convinced anyone? I am holding those positions since before the election. you are an insecure looser

Why is this bet not closed? Isn't the mayoral election over?

There are no official results yet and Mamdani getting less than 50% is unlikely but still possible.

Those absentee voters are rich white/old demographics that will vote Cuomo like Staten Island or more. Think landlords who can afford to have an holiday home in another state.

active military personell, white landlords and old people with holiday homes on florida, those are the voters whos ballots are no counted late. and even if they voted "progressive"/democrat in every previous election, they now pretty much all voted sliwa/cuomo.

Mamdani reaching over 50 percent in the general mayoral election will depend on turnout among younger voters and how undecided moderates break in the final days.

Me thinks you haven't looked over the public data yet. Did you also check the exit polls? CNN and NYT have incredibly insights. tl;dr: Younger voters showed up big.

(PART 1 of 3): This isn't to scare "NO" holders -- it's just for discussion. @Qwester pointed out that the NYT has published detailed voting data for all 228 NYC neighborhoods (thank you, @Qwester!). With 93.5% of votes reported and roughly 145,000 absentee ballots still to count, about 96% of those ballots come from the four boroughs where Zohran Mamdani already holds commanding leads. For Andrew Cuomo to pull Mamdani down to exactly 50.00% citywide, he'd need to win about 58% of the remaining ballots (~82,800 votes) -- a massive swing given the geography of what's left. Does Cuomo have presence inside Mamdani boroughs? Yes -- Cuomo has a handful of strong enclaves scattered across Brooklyn, Queens, and Manhattan: places like Borough Park, Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Gravesend, Bayside, Kew Gardens Hills, Whitestone, and the Upper East Side. But their combined size is tiny compared with the surrounding Mamdani-dominant neighborhoods. Using borough-level turnout ratios, we can infer each neighborhood's potential absentee contribution by scaling it to its share of its borough's total vote. Without a precinct-level absentee map, this proportional scaling is the same method used by professional election analysts. NYC Board of Elections data (2020-2024) shows that absentees typically account for no more than about 10-15% of total neighborhood turnout. (CONTINUED)

(PART 2 of 3): Cuomo's ceiling math: Cuomo has only 17 neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, and the Bronx where he exceeds 50%. Those 17 neighborhoods represent about 270,000 total votes -- roughly 13% of the city's total. In an impossible scenario where all 145,000 remaining absentees come exclusively from these 17 neighborhoods, Cuomo would gain ~89,000 votes, and Mamdani would still finish at ~50.30%. Even at the BOE's maximum realistic 15% absentee turnout cap -- and (still impossible) assuming all 145K absentees came only from Cuomo's 17 neighborhoods -- he'd get just ~24,900 votes, leaving him ~57,900 short of the ~82,800 needed. In that case, Mamdani would end around ~52.7%. Under a borough-weighted mix reflecting realistic absentee distribution -- where the remaining ballots are allocated proportionally across all boroughs rather than concentrated in Cuomo's 17 neighborhoods -- Cuomo would likely receive about ~70,000 absentee votes, still ~12,800 short of what he'd need to drag Mamdani to 50.00%. In that model, Mamdani ends around 50.6%. Bottom line: There simply aren't enough Cuomo voters left to count once you break the numbers down by neighborhood size and absentee potential. Mamdani needs only 42.9% of the remaining ballots to stay above 50.00%, and given where those ballots are coming from, he's virtually certain to exceed that. (CONTINUED)

(PART 3 of 3): Final projection: ~50.6% +/- 0.1%. Even an unprecedented, citywide pro-Cuomo absentee surge couldn't mathematically bring Mamdani down to 50.00%. The math indicates there's effectively a greater than 99.99% chance Mamdani finishes above 50.01%. The NYT neighborhood data only locks that in further. Love to get your feedback and further discussion. I am always open to debate my math.

Yeah, you're pretty much on point. It's just a matter of waiting till all the votes are counted and we can cash our shares

Small math correction in "PART 2 of 3": In an impossible scenario where all 145,000 remaining absentees came exclusively from these 17 Cuomo-leaning neighborhoods and broke for Cuomo at their current average (~61.5%), Cuomo would gain ~89,000 votes and Mamdani would fall below 50% (~49.7%), not remain at ~50.30%. The earlier ~50.30% figure came from a different (smaller) total-vote baseline; using the consistent final total (current counted votes + 145,000) yields the corrected 49.7% result. Sorry.

(Part 1 of 2): Thanks man for your very thorough analysis. I actually am not denying most of what you are saying, though I am not sure that your account of how absentee ballots have played out in past elections is accurate. 2020 had widespread fraud, as we all know, and the truth is, that was the first time that there was such a massive "absentee" turnout. That being said, it stands to reason that the absentee ballots would not deviate from the median very much, in terms of which candidate captures the votes as a percentage.

(Part 2 of 2): However, my analysis of the neighborhood reporting from NYC tells a much different story than yours. Of the 145k outstanding votes to be counted, the overwhelming majority of those are coming out of neighborhoods that were not Mamdani supporting, meaning that they voted for Cuomo or Sliwa or in rare cases, someone else. Mamdani needs the 42.5% (by your calculations... I think it is closer to 45% but let's not split hairs) to get above 50% overall. The other votes don't need to be for Cuomo, though they most likely will be 90%+ for him. I also agree that this would be an upset and would likely trigger some kind of recount though I am not sure how many resources the Board of Elections would be willing to put into it if it is only a matter of whether or not Mamdani has a "mandate" (a term often used when an elected official has more than 50% of the vote.) I am locked in with my bet. Nothing will change that. Relatively low risk with relatively high reward, my favorite kind of bet :)

BTW- Your "small math correction" showing the Mamdani percentage falling to 49.7% is actually what I am banking on. Not that all 145K remaining votes will come from Mamdani weak neighborhoods but that most will and many of the absentee ballots coming from Mandani strongholds will still be voting against him. I realize many fo the "yes" people here have way more sking in the game than I do (buying at a much higher share price because of the lopsided odds) but I really think you guys are way too confident about something that has very very little upside. If I was holding a large amount of "yes" I would be dumping it right now because holding into the results has little upside and a HUGE downside. But that is just how I trade and I am definitely new to polymarket (though I have been trading stocks and crypto for a long time.)

Thanks for the analysis.

Typically the older demographic uses mail in ballots to vote and the older demographic also tends to lean more conservative. Hopefully the absentee ballots lean far more conservatively.

(Part 1 of 2): Appreciate the thoughtful reply -- always good to keep this analytical. A few clarifications, though: 1. 2020 fraud claims: There's no evidence of widespread absentee fraud in NYC (I did a cursory over BOE audits, state court rulings, and post-election canvasses). 2020 did see high absentee turnout (~12% citywide), but deviations stayed within +/- 1-4 points per borough (CFB, Gothamist). No precedent exists for a double-digit citywide swing once over 90% of votes are counted. 2. Geographic reality: The claim that "most of the 145K absentees" come from non-Mamdani areas isn't supported by the borough math. 96% of the remaining ballots are in boroughs Mamdani dominates (Brooklyn 56.8%, Manhattan 52.7%, Bronx 51.5%, Queens 47.3%). 3. The 49.7% figure: That wasn't a forecast -- it was a purely theoretical edge case assuming every remaining ballot came from Cuomo's strongest neighborhoods, which is geographically impossible under the actual distribution of the uncounted votes. I just wanted to show the never-gonna-happen impossible edge case for Cuomo. 4. Absentee behavior: NYC's absentee history (2020-2024 BOE data) shows deviations of only +/- 1-3 points per borough after 90% reporting -- never a 9-10 point citywide reversal.

(Part 2 of 2): 5. Threshold math: Mamdani only needs ~42.9% of the remaining ballots to stay above 50.00%, and based on geography, he's virtually guaranteed to exceed that. 6. Partisan lean: Absentees in Brooklyn, Queens, and Manhattan historically lean more progressive -- slightly adding to Mamdani's margin rather than cutting it. 7. "Absentees from Mamdani strongholds voting against him": There's unfortunately no data to support that. Absentee trends mirror in-person results within +/- 3-5 points (2021-2024 BOE data). Even in heavily Mamdani precincts like Bedford-Stuyvesant (77%) and Bushwick (82%), late absentees historically remain 70%+ Mamdani. 8. Audit threshold: NYC uses risk-limiting audits; only margins under 0.5% trigger a full hand count. A 50.6% vs 49.4% finish wouldn't qualify. Bottom line: Sure, anything is technically "possible", but not remotely probable. Statistically, this isn't a coin toss; it's a 99.99% lock barring a reporting anomaly. At least that is what the math is screaming. This is why I love these discussions because if i am wrong, at least for this market, I have ample time to sell my current positions at a tiny profit. But so far the data makes me feel very, very confident.

I guess we will see in about 48 hours how it all shakes out.

Just to be clear, I'd LOVE for you to be right because I can make serious bank on going "NO"! I'm serious! But every statistical run I've done using all empirical data I hunted down (borough %s, 228 NYT neighborhoods, BoE absentee history) returns the same result: Mamdani ends comfortably above 50.01%. Cuomo simply doesn't have enough votes left. And worse, no NYC election in history has broken this absentee pattern post-90% reporting. None. Some on other sites want to feed CNN, NYT, BBC, BoE, Exit Polls into big AI models to settle it. I too am very curious, especially considering you've seen I've had to make math corrections here despite being an Excel spreadsheet junkie. If AI says I'm wrong, then great I'll flip, cheerlead "NO" and deposit & drop $400K into "NO" right now. I'm serious! Please give it a try and see what they say! Try different ones to see if there is a consensus. Ideally, give them the raw data only, don't paste my replies to them in case I have other hidden math mistakes. Let's keep it totally fair. Maybe their conclusion will match mine or they won't. If I don't hear back from you then I will figure they, unfortunately, agree with my conclusion. Take care.

You make strong analytical arguments, my friend. It’s clear that a conventional analysis of this leans in favor of 50.02% or higher. I just think there is an unknown component here that has a good chance of breaking my way. I gambled a few thousand with a huge potential upside. I’m 100% ok if it doesn’t go my way.

rontro28 rontro28 14s ago @[link removed]... You know people didnt vote in the same Democrat/Republican pattern. This time the rich/older Democrats vote Cuomo with 70+%, which is most of these remaining ballots, so your "empirical evidence" is worhtless.

the remaining votes are from the landlords of each borough. it doesnt matter how each of their borough voted, because landlords will ALL vote less than 30% zohran

Old white people voted 60+% cuomo. Guess whose votes are still uncounted? Old white people and military personell. Oups.

(1/2) While we wait for the final ~145K absentee ballots to be counted, here are some statistical details you should know. Once 90%+ of ballots are counted in New York City elections (we are at 93.5%), the remaining absentees almost always mirror the same borough-level ratios already seen. Deviations typically stay within +/- 1-2 points per borough, and there has NEVER been a city-wide reversal greater than about 5 points once more than 90% of the vote was in. Even during the pandemic-year 2020 absentee surge -- the largest mail-vote deviation in modern NYC history -- the final results stayed broadly consistent with borough-level trends, with absentees leaning only 4-6 points more Democratic in some boroughs. So, where are the remaining ballots? Staten Island (Cuomo's base) is already ~96% counted, leaving under 5% of the uncounted pool. Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and the Bronx (Mamdani's strongholds) are 93-94% counted and hold ~96% of the remaining ballots. Yes, 96%! The geography of what's left therefore strongly favors Mamdani. For him to fall to/below 50.00%, absentee ballots from his own strongholds would have to underperform by roughly 9 points city-wide -- far beyond any historical precedent. Weighted by each borough's share of the remaining ballots, Mamdani's current borough percentages imply an expected take of ~51.4% from the remaining absentee pool..... (continued)

(2/2) Plugging that into the totals yields a projected final city-wide share of ~50.6%, with a realistic range of [link removed]%. To finish at 50.00%, he would have to get ~42.9% of the remaining votes -- a 9 point swing against expectation. That would mean Cuomo capturing ~58% of all 145K absentee ballots from the very boroughs Mamdani is already dominating by wide margins (Cuomo isn't even reaching 58% in Staten Island, his stronghold). Statistically, the chance of that pattern arising naturally is less than 0.1%; in practical terms, it's effectively zero! The realistic final result remains around 50.6%. If, hypothetically, the uncounted ballots did break that sharply toward Cuomo, the swing would be so extraordinary that election officials would almost certainly run immediate post-count audits and verification checks to rule out reporting or tabulation errors. That wouldn't be proof of misconduct (ie. vote manipulation), but it would be a statistical outlier serious enough to warrant a full review because NYC results almost never diverge that far from borough-level trends once 90%+ of votes are in. In summation: this market was already decided 2 days ago. It's just free money now.

where are you getting this data from

If it were Republican vs Mamdami I would agree with you, but this is Socialism vs Democrat. The only question is whether the majority of the mail in ballots are 60% wealthy out of state Cuomo supporters or just lazy, identify as disabled, socially anxious Mamdami supporters.