Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?

I believe this is about Luigi Mangione pleading himself as guilty or not. And he said “not guilty”.

What a bunch of BS. We still don't know on the federal charges. This shouldn't be resolved to "no" yet.

How can this be disputed before May 31, 2025??????!!!!

Bro and people still trust this site after they claimed "100% chance of government shutdown" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025), the internet is starting to show how fake the resolutions on this site are, and the internet doesn't forget or forgive [link removed]

Read the rules dummy

He still has to appear for federal court January 18th.

Maybe read the rules

which part... because isn't there still outstanding charges? fill me in, I'm not a sore looser - just missing something.

"subsequent pleas will not be considered."

the rules are trash, you dumb piece of shit

glib dumbfuck, go fuck yourself

Whatever happens during his trial his $Luigi coin on [link removed] will go to the moon!🌕

There are still several charges for him to provide a plea on

No, this market is clearly over

What did I miss???

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this market so illiquid

Doesn't matter if he does, Polymarket might decide that guilty is a malleable philosophical concept and thus one can never use it as a label on a person. [link removed]

I'm referring to the nonsense in https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-before-2025

This guy atfw is so desperate 🙄

Disputer fuck you

YEAH, P4 SCAMER

Let Poly clarify this

I don't know what to say here. It's clear the rules are meant to only prevent it from counting if he changes his pleas to guilty later on. But he literally hasn't even had a chance to plea on the federal charges yet. I don't know how this counts as a "first plea on arraignment" for those charges.

I don't have a stake in the market itself, I'm just here for the bond money.

well you should dispute the 2nd one as well or you will be sure to lose the first one

Thanks for the heads up, I just did.

now you likely lose both disputes though

BILLY WHYYYYYY

I don't know why I lose the dispute...where in the rules does it say only the state charges count? It's ANY charge right - why would we toss out the Federal ones.

arraignment. Not arraignments

This market will resolve based on his first pleas at the arraignment. THE ARRAINGMENT IS OVER SIR.

"first pleas at the arraignment". There are charges that have not had a "first plea" yet cause no arraignment yet. I don't know how it can be interpreted any other way. You need each charge to have a first plea to have this market resolve.

Yeah what about "first plea". There's half the charges without any plea. How do you fulfill the "first plea" part of that rule?

you clearly don't like me but that's doesn't matter, I would post for you on this dispute, because unlike you, I am a decent human being lol

You know you can have a "the state arraignment" and a "the federal arraignment" right? Both involve "first pleas" to charges

You know car has one discord server where he lined up lots of the high win rate (not including me) members, and they will all post for him on this dispute, and UMA has penalty, so they will work on whichever side that will likely to win, thus you are likely fucked

i love you billyboy

He can change his pleading.

Yes that would not count. If he changed his pleading for the state charges then that's obviously not a first plea for those charge. But he hasn't pled anything for the federal charges so how do you resolve already?

because this market is about the first arraignment. not for the next arraignment(s)

It never says first arraignment. If it said that then it's different. It obviously says "first pleas" at arraignment. You can have "first pleas" for charges at different arraignments and each one would be "the arraignment (singular)" for that charge

Easiest win on the exchange 😭

You guys are jumping the gun here. I agree he's most likely going to plead not guilty to everything but he has Federal AND State charges. He's only arraigned on the state charges. He can still plead guilty on the Federal, it's too early to resolve.

FIRST ARRAIGNMENT. Not First arraignments.

No it says "First please at the arraignment". He hasn't had an arraignment for the Federal charges and hasn't had a "first plea". This is pretty clear here.

Save it for the UMA discord, 50-penis. Luigi hasn't had his first arraignment on the federal charges and it is possible he will plead guilty to those.

Also, Macron! 😹

Have you ever predicted anything correctly, 50-penis, or is it all fast-clicking things that aren't fast-clicks with you? 😆

THANKS LUIGI

Dammit luigi i hope they give you the chair!

Just got off the phone with Luigi, he told me to BOND this! FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT

Why did you switch?

He waived extraditon, might suggest hes not trying to fight. Hes trying to make a statement and be like uncle ted, who pled guilty. He seems like an idealist, who might go along as a form of righteous martyrdom. As to say i did what i did, now go ahead and do what you do. More honor than trying to wriggle free from punishment. Also theres an incentive to not let him drag out a trial and get more attention and more press when theyd rather offer him a decent deal and memory hole him.

ladies and gentlemen of the market. it is indubitably true that Luigi Mangione, if he values his freedom or even values his life, has no choice but to plead guilty. but ask yourselves: if he valued his life or freedom, would he have shot anyone at all? the Noes rest, your honor

You are obviously not crazy, unlike OrangutanMan, who is just saying severely delusional things. But even with your argument, do you not see a possibility of his feelings changing once “prison for life” starts gettin’ real, hearing those terrorism charges?

OrangutanMan I am not saying there is no way he pleads guilty, I’m not saying you’re gonna be wrong 100% but the reasoning behind it, even if it were the reasoning HE used, is batshit crazy and a lawyer would resign before agreeing to proceed based on the calculation you illustrated

@CamFantastic yours is the strongest case for No. Have you seen my argument for Yes about his lawyer and family pressure? Cause it uses the same assumption of reality you make (that the guilty plea is better for him) and bets on his fam and lawyer recognizing this

Yeah, I did. i definitely see the possibility. your reasoning is fully rational and i think you'd do the same in his position. but..if you'll permit me to be a grandiose windbag for a second. take a look at the grand sweep of human history. people giving everything up if it they think it will further a cause are everywhere. even really really dumb causes. and medicare for all or whatever is a much, much less dumb cause than, i dunno, Branch Davidianism or The One True King Of Scotland or some shit. Statistically, considering how far constitutional measures have gotten over the last 30 years, someone willing to kill or die or rot in jail for it was gonna come out sooner or later. I got a feeling it's him. But he may well choke at the final hurdle; people who wanna save their own skin when the going gets tough also vastly outnumber the martyrs

I 100% agree with you that people don’t understand true belief in something, and underestimate its prevalence. Juxtaposing these two takes, my intuition is that it’s basically 50/50 - except you can 3x your money. I’ve only got one substantial point against what you said, and that’s this: Hasn’t he already done what you’re warning to be aware people will do? Hasn’t he sacrificed himself for the cause? How does pleading not guilty and cooking himself completely add value? PS which constitutional measures are you referring to? / And yeah there’s the chance that the DA doesn’t even offer him an attractive deal so that’s there, too, but tbh even 25 years with parole instead of life without parole is insane

im the only person on this app hat understand logic and reason. yall would ride my dick if i made the exact same trades with 1000x the money. but my ideas and thoughts are the same. There is NO FUCKING CHANCE. let me repeat, NO FUCKING CHANCE!!!! HE PLEADS GUILTY. the right to a jury trial is one enshrined to the constitution and available to everyone. And the majority of america supports what luigi did. now let me ask you... if the majority of america supports what he did... and there are 12 people on a jury. if one of 5 people support what he did.. which is the conservative estimates... CONSERVATIVE! then 2 people at miinimum on the jury would support what he did and only one has to say not guilty to hang the jury and get him off the hook. but lets ay that didnt happen. this market is not asking if he will be found guily, but if he willl plead guilty. he has a choice, sped life in prison by pleading guilty, or fight it with a decent probability he gets let off the hook, or gets life in prison if found guilty by the jury. this is a no fucking brainer. i am the smartest person on this platform. this willr esolve to no with zero fucking doubt in my mind. yall may call me arrogant or dumb or full of myself. But i am right and always will be right.

Youre not dumb or arrogant. Youre both

K.

Crazy to see how many people are defending this sicko. Imagine if a random person came up and shot your mother in the face, and others were advocating for them to be let off free. There seems to be a mix of attractiveness bias among some gay men and women wanting him to be free, the same people who would wander into jeffery dahmers basement knowing he was a psycho and leftywankers

He just pleaded guilty 🧍