PoliticsMarkets
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
$13,529 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Yes$14K Vol.20%
1%
RulesMarket Context
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Yes is a good hedge against the judicial integrity of France
Le parquet requiert son inegibilite. Ca sent pas bon pour elle
Ouais mais cest requis sans exécution provisoire. on est dacc que dans ce cas, le YES gagne?
Desole mais ce que tu dis est faux. Tout ce qui est provisoire = en attente d'un possible appel. La on parle de l'appel donc si elle est ineligible elle l'est quoi qu'il arrive. Donc le NO gagne
She will never win. She is guilty and was aware about the situation. So she stole money thanks to her political status. Hope I can have a good No price
Meme si c'est assez probable que l'appel n'y change rien tu connais pas beaucoup le dossier visiblement
Si si je le connais assez bien justement. Mais bon on va pas parler 50 ans, t’as l’air tellement condescendant en disant qu’elle va perdre mais que j’ai quand meme tord alors que tu ne mets pas un centime dans la machine. Portes tes cojones et achetes du No
Achetes du No au lieu de clc a me dire que j’ai raison mais que je n’ai pas ta science infuse.
Mdrrrr tu rages
Repasses en pnl positif on en reparle apres. Ok ?
😂🤣 ce seum immense, je l'ai contrarie le petit
Que veux-tu, comment ne pas rager quand un pnl negatif de 500 balles vient me dire que j’ai raison mais que j’ai tord. Tu es tellement performant sur polymarket que maintenant j’hesite a acheter du YES
Continue de pleurer 😂🤣
My friend rien a voir avec le sujet mais comment t'as fait pour choper le NO de Knafo a 75c? Serieux il a ete a ce prix la?
Yes j’ai eu pas mal de chances. Un peu comme Larry Silverstein qui a assure ses tours 6 semaines avant pour un danger specifique et qui a touche 2 fois l’assurance
What about if the courts shorten the ineligibility period?
Rules are ambiguous yeah.
I think the rules are saying that she should actively be able to run for office again in 2026. Which means if e.g. they shortened the ban to 1.5 years she may be able to run for election in 2027 but it wont be lifted in 2026
Rules are clear: legally allowed to run by end of 2026 = yes.
Faut pas etre desilu, y'a tres peu de chances que son appel passe ...
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
Yes · Yes
Amount
$
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