PoliticsMarkets
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Petro - Colombia President60%
Starmer - UK PM21%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President9%
Merz - German Chancellor3%
$813,065 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Petro - Colombia President$113K Vol.60%
1%
Starmer - UK PM$47K Vol.21%
2%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President$30K Vol.RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Given that Abelardo is the favorite and leftists socialists have never accepted when they lose, it's possible Petro does not want to hand over power. He's already said he'll take to the streets if Abelardo wins.
then buy
lmao who's keep buying
You all should read the criteria correctly, Petro's scheduled departure from office does not qualify as YES.
Milei will be out… private government info leaked by him… [link removed]
false
Petro’s term is ending in May anyway. so according to the market rules, he will count as ‘no’. makes sense ?
The rules are very clear: "An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify." I don't understand, then, why Gustavo Petro is leading in the polls, if his constitutional departure on August 7th doesn't apply, and the possibility of a coup, resignation, or removal is practically impossible.
It meant that old leader is not yet out of power until a new leader officially takes office through elections, similar to the Orban incident.
But if Petro leaves power constitutionally on August 7, this prediction will end in "No," because he did it constitutionally; it was not a dismissal.
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Petro - Colombia President · Yes
Amount
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