This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1,551,896 on November 27, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of November 27, 2025. Any subsequent revisions published to data for this date will not be considered. If no data for November 27 is published by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Welp damn, that’s unfortunate.
thats actually so unlucky
~7.1k increase, so ts was def cointoss odds. I don’t regret the decision I made. I saw the data and went in on 3-1 returns for what turned out to be a cointoss. If I saw the same data again, I’d make the same bet. People who go in for a 1:3 returns on a cointoss will lose in the long run.
Like the top yes holder is already back in the red not even 3 days later.
agreed
sad to see the dumbasses pay 80 cents for a coin flip and win, but karma will get them eventually, especially the retard Czech banker who confirmed both my beliefs about idiot bankers, and dumbass retard czechs.
Find more coin flips with 3:1 returns :)
XD
The top yes holder is already back in the red not even 3 days later. The law of large numbers will win in the long run.
oof, was pretty close!! gg all
Interesting price action. I’m not selling a single share until I see the same number on the TSA website.
Ah shit, damn.
Look again. It's been on the website for more than 20 minutes lol
I mean it didn’t update for me until just now, even when I refreshed the page
Yeah, I think there was a caching issue. I tried to make an online copy of the page and it showed the old version, even though I could see the update in my browser.
Its close peerless. On to the next play gg
its 1,559,048 gg
source?
someone scooped everything
how? i didnt understand
Finish
1559048 win
Interesting. Where are you finding this number, its not on the TSA website?
Give me your liquidity
How did you find it so quickly?
Sure, as soon as I see the same number on the TSA website
It's already on the TSA website
Buy my ticket
Ah, shit. Damn
11/26/2025 2,752,940. No way this will drop mote than 1 200 000!!
damn right
you got lucky, retard. keep yapping.
can't wait for your dumb ass to lose it all, since that's what going to happen to a moron who pays as much as you did for a coin flip.
it was easy money if you used a couple of IA models to scrape the data ... take the L and learn for the next one
The TSA website is not showing data for 11-27. For all we know, they could literally just be making it up.
Maybe do some homework before you make bad decision next time. DD FTW.
Its okay. Like I was saying the whole time, statistically favorable =/= statistically guaranteed. I was fully aware of the possibility of this backfiring, which it did, but with a ~9000 win margin, I’d make the same choice I did now. It was a coinflip with 3-1 returns, but the odds are still 50:50
Easy money for sure . Im sorry for the NO guys
Interesting
Easy yes win, the threshold is too low at 1.5m despite all the obstacles.
baeed on my quant (gemini) this is a tight race because of the snow storm but the stable growth could outnumber the cancelled flights. in conclusion, do not bond this shit but still play some yes
$93 and -4k pnl reasoning
Welp I’m rounded out and maxed out. Goodnight yall, hope you had a good thanksgiving, goodluck yall and see you all in the morning!
The queen of ludopathy 🎰❤️ Hope u win
hope you win? tf is that? you want the otherside to win?
Thx free money
I love how everyone is gaslighting eachother in the comments that this is secretly a 95-5 market, this shit is 50/50 and all of us know nothing about this subject
data is your friend :)
buy more
on god
Lmao, you’re doing the same thing I did and it got me wayyy overextended. Just know favorable =/= guaranteed. The craziest part is the person who filled most my orders switched sides.
Basically just saying, be careful you don’t get too caught up into coaxing them to buy more.
i have 17k balance, i can do a $230 bet XD
Gn fellow notard 😆
O yeah ur cost basis is way lower. Oh what I would have given to know that “no” prices would fall so cheap. Goodnight, cya in the morning.
dont just sell, join the good guys
told you that you will lose. next time listen to smart money
you were so confident you sold all your shares lol
at a profit. im not dumb. to build money you need good r/r. you are down, i am up
Seems like NO holders are all losers. Smart money is on YES, and TRUTH too!
Buy YES because of the "Wednesday Spillover" Effect. Weather Displacement: Severe storms in the Midwest and Northeast on Wednesday (Nov 26) caused widespread cancellations on the busiest travel day. Those passengers didn't vanish; they were rebooked onto Thursday (Thanksgiving Day). This "rollover traffic" artificially inflates Thursday's volume well above the standard holiday lull. The "Valley" is Filling: With peak days (Wed/Sun) saturated and expensive, price-sensitive travelers shifted to Thanksgiving Day itself. Airlines report load factors on the holiday are significantly higher than the 2024 baseline. Growth Math: We only need to beat 1.55M. Even a modest 2% secular growth (standard industry expansion) + the 50k-100k rebooked passengers from the storm puts the projection at ~1.60M+, easily clearing the threshold.
This was basically my same conclusion. Except for the 'Busiest travel period of x years' can be found in headlines from 2024, 2023, etc. So can't go off those - but I do think the 1.55M is an easy beat.
Also there was increase in amtrak and bus travel this year - but don't think it'd displace that many total fliers.
the main catalyst is passengers rebooked onto thursday, i am very confident we win
Source lol?
Here’s a source showing that there were a grand total of 98 cancellations yesterday. A whole two figures. Absolutely quaking in my boots rn. [link removed] .org/dataset/current-operation-status-for-us-airports/#collapseThree
thats no source lol
Its a far better source than “trust me bro”
crazy you're gonna lose 3k on this
also, if flights are cancelled the 26. it means that they will fly the 27
Yeah, crazy.
so your point literally contradicts yourself. this means more people will fly on the 20th.
27*
According to gemini 3, this is 95% to be yes. Waiting for a dip to buy
I'm currently using an electric fly swatter to scare families with children away from the checkpoint, no is a lock
Honestly even if I lose this, this comment alone was funny enough to make it worth it
you're telling me that people can exit and reenter tsa multiple times and that counts as a checkpoint?
I did this 10 times today