This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Netflix (directly or through a subsidiary) acquires control of Warner Bros.’ film and TV studios and associated streaming/pay-TV businesses (including HBO / HBO Max and related content libraries), as described in the companies’ December 5, 2025 acquisition announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the transaction is terminated, allowed to lapse past its contractual outside date without closing, blocked by regulators, or replaced by an alternative structure in which Netflix does not acquire control of Warner Bros.’ film/TV studios and streaming business, this market will resolve to “No”. If the acquisition closes on substantially similar terms—even with changes to price, mix of cash/stock, or required divestitures—but Netflix still ends up in control of the Warner Bros film and TV studios and the HBO/HBO Max streaming business, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery (or any successor entities), supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.
Friends, when do you think we can mark this as resolved?
It should proposed today, as soon as the Paramount offer is disclosed to have been signed and the Netflix transaction terminated:
If the transaction is terminated, allowed to lapse past its contractual outside date without closing, blocked by regulators, or replaced by an alternative structure in which Netflix does not acquire control of Warner Bros.’ film/TV studios and streaming business, this market will resolve to “No”.
Should resolve now, confirmed by Netflix in regulatory filling: Netflix Confirms Received $2.8b Termination Fee From Paramount
@24castscom just dropped some alpha on X
"Warner Bros. Discovery’s board of directors approved a new all-cash bid from Netflix for its studios and HBO Max streaming business and released financial details on its soon-to-be spun-off cable networks in a Tuesday regulatory filing."
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The board is clinging to Netflix at $27.75 because it's 'safer,' but Paramount is dangling $30 all-cash right in front of the shareholders
they still want netflix, the thing about those packages is that is useless if they don't have a platform in which they can stream their catalog to a greater audience than what they have, paramount is not that attractive in that sense.
Netflix letter to shareholders today "The risks inherent in the LBO structure are exacerbated by the amount of debt PSKY must incur, its current financial position and future prospects, as well as the lengthy period to close the transaction - which PSKY itself estimates to be 12-18 months following signing."
do you have the link to check that info? went to the latest letter, but couldn't see that part you wrote.
Versant Media's stock is tanking. It's clear that Warner's cable properties are vastly overvalued, which makes Paramount's deal look much more attractive now.
Nope
My dumbass thought this was at the end of 2025 and was confused at current prices
same bro :(
🥀🥀
same bro!!!!
"Warner shareholders have until Jan. 8 to vote on Paramount’s offer."
[link removed]
it's won't close soon
dfs
helo
[link removed]
why is not going up?
Netflix is frontrunner now
Doubt it. Elizabeth Warren and even Trump have already signaled they aren't fans of this much consolidation. Combining the #1 and #4 streaming services is an antitrust nightmare. Expect the DOJ to drag this out until 2027 or block it entirely.
Paramount Skydance merger took ~13 months to close. This merger is vastly more complex especially with a hostile offer which could be argued as being superior for existing WBD shareholders (lawsuit pending for the board of WBD if they don't go through the motions and continue to accept NFLX offer, which could delay things further). I can't even count how many different countries will need to pass through their regulatory approval before this transaction can be closed. 13 months for this? I'd say whoever comes out on top it's more like the timeline of Microsoft Activision (22 months). Sprinkle in 2 christmas breaks... keep buying Yes please. I'll be the counter party to that.
Mostly fair, however with the current status in the USA a large purchase of a certain crypto currency, or some public ego-felatio would grease the wheels quite a bit. Things don't take as long when you can skip most of the red tape in exchange for ego-stroking.
So cutting red tape in the US down a few months at both the DOJ and FTC? How about at the European Commission do they get greased as well? UK competition authority? Canada Competition Bureau? Japan FT Commission? South Korea Trade Commission? Australia, India, Brazil. Guess they all get greased as well to move this along as an expedited review? Guess my experience being in a Nasdaq listed company merger doesn't mean anything since every agency in each country can be greased now
Your experience means diddly when you have a narcissist that can be bought with a golden iphone to declare that you can continue to profit. And every nation you mentioned IS unwilling to cross the pedo pretending to be king in west for the next couple years.
Business as usual (or legal) which you might be experienced with is irrelevant.
If you look at Paramount’s most recent balance sheet, around 68% of their revenue goes to cost of maintaining revenue, leaving little space for power in terms of money. And only 38% remaining is disgusting for a company going after Netflix. Not only that but Netflix is also supported by Wells Fargo, a bank, Keep in mind banks are designed to be very liquid. And for Warner. Bros, having the majority of the 82billion netflix is offering is stock, if this is a successful operation, the 82 billion will rise up. Netflix’s 82 billion doesn’t just buy you a crap ton of money, it buys you a crap ton of expendable stock.
If you look at Paramount’s current stock, this month they are medium losses, and if Paramount’s lenders see even the slightest damage in this bid, they will chicken out as its very risky. And we all know that Paramount cannot afford to internally finance this bid if the lenders go.
God, I hope not. If Netflix buys WBD, every show and movie we love will either get canceled or cost $30 a month. But honestly? The price tag is too high. Unless WBD stock tanks completely, Netflix can't afford it without completely diluting its own stock. The numbers don't work.
Free?