This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
nice
Polymarket is broken
We are not getting GPT-5 for Christmas
It will clearly resolve yes.
Sam Altman just said this is AGI-1 [link removed]
Chatgpt: "An OpenAI employee can be considered an official representative of OpenAI only when acting in an authorized capacity or communicating explicitly on behalf of the organization." So it's No still.
lets use the consensus of credible reporting and find out
"The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used." This means that the credible reporting is independent from an official announcement.
yet another openai employee said that they have announced agi [link removed]
what more do we need to confirm agi?
yes how does resolution happen?
polymarket is fucked if this does not resolve to yes. there are so many employees who have said o3 is agi
Is there polymarket support where we can ask them to resolve this?
The rules specifically say by an announcement by openai or an official representative. People making posts about their opinions on twitter don’t matter.
an employee saying o3 is agi is their opinion?
You need to propose a resolution
Multiple public facing official OpenAI members have now stated that AGI has been achieved. Members of OpenAI with @openai in their bio are de facto official representatives. The fact that neither of these announcements have been retracted, despite Sam Altman and the rest of OpenAI seeing the statements publicly mean that they are as official as you can get, no different than if Sam Altman had stated it. If this doesn't resolve accordingly then Polymarket is useless
A member of technical staff at OpenAI says this o3 is AGI [link removed]
This reslolves the market now
what about the o3 model of openai?
Sam Altman just said that they achieved AGI. [link removed]
nah, it's just a new score on a benchmark, but nice try
also the guy talking about is not Altman, not even an OpenAI employee.
he is the founder of arc agi prize haha. i dont know how it gets more legit than that
the bet is about openai, also again, it's just good score on a benchmark, that's it. arc itself said that passing that test doesn't automatically mean it's an agi. i'd sell your shares while u can, but burning money can be fun too
the latest comment from evan mays will resolve it. he is a member of the technical staff and says that o3 is agi
Probably doesn’t count due to the wording, since he is speaking for himself “in my opinion”
This should count. Vahid is pretty high in the ranks and counts as a technical representative.
The guy that announced it is Head od Technical at OpenAI, he is a official representative. It will resolve yes.
Are employees "official representatives" lol. This market is SO BAD.
They announced it: [link removed]
[link removed]
I have a major issue with the resolution terms of this market. Even if they make an announcement, there's not even benchmarking for determining what constitutes AGI.
But this market is not measuring if OAI achieves AGI, but if they *say* they acchieved AGI.
No