Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November?

While RFK Jr., in his role as Secretary of Health and Human Services, had publicly claimed that an initiative would "find the cause of autism by September" 2025

LOL

Polymarket's clarification is incorrect. At 16:16 of the link video RFK jr says "in addition to a possible acetaminophen connection, [for] to autism for pregnant women, infants and toddlers our research has revealed that folaite deficiency in a child brain can lead to autism."

Grok's take to : So RFK jr did definitively link folate deficiency to autism contrary to the scientific consensus? Yes, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did definitively link folate deficiency to autism in his September 22, 2025, White House press conference, stating that “folate deficiency in a child’s brain can lead to autism.” This claim, part of the HHS report he presented, suggests a direct causal relationship, particularly in cases of cerebral folate deficiency, where he cited research showing improvements in about 60% of affected children treated with leucovorin HHS Autism Announcement Fact Sheet. However, this stance contrasts with the scientific consensus...

The operable word is "can" meaning it increases the risk as opposed to "may" which means there is a correlation but causation has not been established.

I think the moral of the story is to not make bets on something that can be easily misinterpreted

Boy, is this market poorly conceived and phrased!

yep

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today initiated the process for a label change for acetaminophen (Tylenol and similar products) to reflect evidence suggesting that the use of acetaminophen by pregnant women may be associated with an increased risk of neurological conditions such as autism and ADHD in children.

[link removed]

"may be associated" , "Possible association" =\= definitive cause

I love it when people try to post an argument for their own position but instead it's an argument for the other side

omg so cheap for yes lets go

u got screwed lmaoo

not really we have lots of time

Also I see some of your bets you have Yikes ! might want to reconsider those

oh wait u have none cause ur to broke haha

sorry im not down 500 $ on here and have a life?

at least i got money to gamble with and you ? lol

put some money were ur mouth is brokey

i think u dont have a life you definitely, dont have money what do you actually do then ?

wine

I might spend a few hours building a P2 proposal as he speaks next

If RFK Jr. identifies multiple causes, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution - Tylenol and vaccines. Truth is finally being spoken

he didn't say it definitevly, but the good thing about this market is he can say he found it and even if its bs it still qualifies as yes

Still more than a month for RFK to issue a stronger statement confirming a cause(s) for autism. Also way better bonds out there like Mamdani, whereas this one could go to 100 if RFK has a quack day.

Yeah today RFK didn’t but his team DID

You have no idea how long it takes to run clinical studies lmao and it shows

We do not need clinical studies for this market, it's about what RFK claims. Today, his claims were not strong enough, but it is at least plausible that will change with more than a month to go. Regardless, even if there were only a 5% chance, this is a very shitty bond compared to Mamdani and other markets.

I know that we don't need clinical studies for this market. Except rfk will not say anything definitive until those studies are completed lmao , that's why they are not talking about a causal link so far lmao. And these studies takes months to years to do lmao. He evens says it himself that the timeline has been pushed. [link removed]

Like yes holders y'all are cooked I don't know what to tell you guys. At this point it's pure delusion

I have 7 billion dollars it's okay... We can bet a little "Yes"

Waiting for RFK to give another update on what the team said today ;)

Their actual research still hasn't even started yet as RFK said today, I don't know what potential slip-up Yes holders are hoping for here

resolution doesnt require research. any arbitrary claim by rfk qualifies

How will he do that when he hasn't done any research? Did you watch the speech last night?

No research is required to resolve to "yes." All that is required is RFK Jrr announces he thinks he's found a definitive cause. The fact that a White House press conference announced this and an FDA labeling change is happening, RFK has announced what he believes is a definitive cause of autism. [link removed]

so you think that, even though this market has been up for 6 months, and their huge announcement just happened and they basically said they know nothing and haven't even started their research yet, there is still an 8% chance he will claim to have found a definitive cause of autism?

What deranged crack ocelot did just put out additional context like that?

wtf happened

Delusional yes holders

like if you are autistic

that loss hurt ain't gonna lie

All you had to watch to know to take the no was this : [link removed] . They will never say that something definitely causes autism because you to defend it and when you're proved wrong you will look like a dumbass (or lawsuit) RFJ is a lawyer is not dumb enough to not understand that

Markets actually work

if they say or imply that anything "definitively" causes autism, then they will have to defend that statement, which they cant do

Anyone who owns Yes: after you lose, make sure to put on your dunce cap and sit in the corner and think about your mistakes.

Why mister Ken? Asking without any monetary or emotional stake here. It's a meme market