This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia abandons the Tartus Naval Facility in Syria by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "abandon" is defined as Russia ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Just a matter of time, now, kids.
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They appear to be packing up: [link removed]
FYI: The contract with STG Stroytransgaz for the harbor that was cancelled is DIFFERENT from the Russian military naval base. Two seperate installations.
They are clearly interlinked
loessoe
Its happening according to ISW: "Russia may have reached an agreement with the HTS-led interim government to evacuate Russian military assets from Syria. Marine Traffic, a shipping tracking website shows that the Russian cargo ship Sparta II entered the port of Tartus on January 21. The Sparta II is likely transferring Russian military equipment to Libya, given that the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia intended to use the Sparta II to transport equipment from Syria to Libya.[44] Commercially available satellite imagery shows that columns of Russian military equipment and cargo have remained lined up for evacuation at the port since at least December 17. Sparta II’s entry into the port suggests that Russia and the HTS-led interim government recently reached an agreement that allows Russian vessels to enter the port."
Russia is here to stay
“ Saudi Arabia hosted a high-level diplomatic meeting on Syria’s future that notably excluded Iran and Russia - the two powers that had propped up Bashar al-Assad’s regime for over a decade.” stay home maybe