This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia abandons the Tartus Naval Facility in Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "abandon" is defined as Russia ceasing all military operations and withdrawing all personnel from the facility. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
damn too late it’s already over
Nasty wordplay
So what's going on with this market?
this market will only resolve to yes if ALL Russian units withdraw from ALL of syria (not just tartus like this market), for the same resolution date and somehow no is cheaper there. HUGE market inefficiency: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria/will-russia-pull-out-of-syria?tid=1740497554457
again, this market does not factor in PMCs. If russia withdraws conventional units but still leaves PMCs to "guard" something left in Syria, this market resolves to "No" if those PMCs are stationed in Tartus, while the other one resolves to "Yes"
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i still wanna bet
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Putin is talking to Julani right now , That's wild
Remember that the Syrian authorities said they can stay if it benefits them, which is highly unlikely
“ Syria’s relations with Iran and Russia remain an open wound for its people after those nations backed autocratic President Bashar al-Assad during the long civil war, the country’s new foreign minister said Wednesday.”
The Syrian army prevents Russian forces from entering tartus and returning to Hmeimim Military Airport again.
Syrian authorities not allowed Russian military column with missiles from Hmeimim airbase to enter Tartus naval base :) [link removed]
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