This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
comment on their every new post and attach the screenshot of Hryshne
spam them on X too: [link removed] [link removed]
Yes holders if you want to win, email ISW and ask to paint the remaining portion of Hryshne. emails: development@[link removed] cc: press@[link removed]
Yes holders if you want to win, email ISW and ask to paint the remaining portion of Hryshne. emails: development@[link removed] cc: press@[link removed]
Entire Hryshyne is red on ISW!
If this market resolves no polymatket is sick
Maybe we should contact the isw and ask them to fix the map for the next update.
Not a great idea. They've already said that they don't like us - it's probably better if we don't go out of our way to annoy them, and then maybe they won't go out of their way to annoy us.
Yes holder. Send me friend request on discord "imageclasher". Let's discuss
Can some big fish please propose Yes.I think there is a decent chance of it being already met the town is almost fully colored red this should be enough if the not colored part is small which it is (it is in the rules).
It is proposable after the next update.
Yeah you're right it's better to wait a bit
lets align with common sense
🤖🔫
Feels like this part of rules should cover this situation - "If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution."
yes but I'm not understanding why prices are dumping again... that's what they call shitshow lol
People bet on it not being fully covered.
not possible to think that this is not covered by "however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution." even tho its a sharp edge, its almost likely saying that they captured an entire city except for half a neighborhood (being modest, it looks even smaller than that) - really doesn't make sense
Yeah, it's literally a few square meters.
It's a negligible peace of land. The mapper likely didn't even see it rendered properly when he was drawing the control boundary.
This is one thing that we know is not true.
Accodring to ISW, the outdoor toilet in the garden of 17 Марусі Чурай провулок is not yet under Russian control
According to ISW, "Russian forces have likely consolidated positions in Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) and advanced north from the settlement."
It's a joke mate, if you look on the southern edge of Hryshyne on the ISW map, you see a tiny triangle poking out which is not colored red
It's a joke mate, ISW forgot to color a tiny triangle which pokes out on the southern side of Hryshyne.
I might be a bit on the edge here XD
Just in case there are further changes in the front line, I'd like to note that the ISW map is now fully covering Hryshyne, screen capture [link removed]
Are we waiting may 31 to propose
1) it needs to stay shaded over an update cycle
2) you need to be on a whitelist to propose
You should see an ophthalmologist.
You may note that NiceDuckBro already voted with his feet. So I'm reasonably sure this is within the rules
I will call you: "The Stone"
bro is red
[link removed]
Another shitshow from ISW
just because I sold 300 shares at loss =/
When was the last time you checked the map?
I believe you can propose YES resolution already
I bought 2 weeks ago, sold 3 days ago and check the map just today because the remaining shares pumped... but tbh not sure how those markets resolves when there are like really small edges not coloured (ppl saying its fully covered are fucking blind retards, there is a really small edge at the bottom left not covered yet)
I gave up my position for dead before I also saw that it suddenly pumped. I also see that corner, of course. There is, as you probably know, an exception in the rules about the shading not precisely matching up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border. @NiceDuckBro explained that this exception has been interpreted extremely narrowly in the past. However, he suddenly sold all his shares about two hours ago, probably triggering the pump we observed. So interpret it as an expression of his experienced opinion that the corner must be within the rules.
So interpret it like I don't want to be a part of shithow)
thank you mate, that was insightful. I also believe this should be within the rules - doesn't even make sense controlling the entire region but 3 blocks of the city lol
It feels like ISW hasn't changed any information about Hrushyne for a long time.
The spokesperson of the Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported on May 20 that Russian forces are operating along the Hryshynka River channel, attempting to advance to Myrne, Hulive, Shylivka, Yurivka, and eventually Krutoyarivka (all northwest of Pokrovsk), indicating that Russian forces have likely consolidated positions in Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) and advanced north from the settlement
[link removed]
read the rules a part is colored as infiltration so it doesn't count
What is your considered opinion about the part of the rules that says that "If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a 'Yes' resolution."?
there is a significant part which is striped so it doesn't count, the rule is to avoid the case where there is a miniscule part not colored
Can you really, in good faith, say that the striped part is not a tiny amount along the border of the city? There is of course some subjective judgement involved in this determination. You may want to consider how ISW themselves are describing the situation, which is, quote "Russian forces have likely consolidated positions in Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) and advanced north from the settlement." To me, it looks like the map is not completely precise at that level. The area in question is a crop field and parts of a lake, so it’s not like there is some special tactical situation in that particular area. Thanks for your participation in the discussion.
you are not in good fait because you bet so much on it. Such market have been for quite some time and by experience I tell you this is enough
Confirmation bias is a thing, which is why it’s a good idea to cross-check with opposing viewpoints. The most controversial examples I could find were Vovchansk and Hulyaipole. In Hulyaipole, I'd estimate at least 10% of the town is colored infiltration, not a tiny amount by any stretch.
Once upon a time Huliaipole was 99,5% shaded red and it wasn't enough. You can see those unshaded small parts without zooming, so it isn't enough. Those "small" parts are equal to the size of the street actually)
You can’t see those parts on the zoom level that ISW is using in their reports. But I get your point, a great lawyer knows the judge.
Propose YES please. The ISW map already shows Hryshyne and territory beyond already captured. It's not even debatable. Easy win
If you weren’t so retarded, you’d know that this isn’t enough.
The “propose resolution” button leads to nowhere. To propose a resolution, you actually need to be on a whitelist. This is probably a good thing, otherwise anyone could propose any resolution they like and hope it won’t be challenged for two hours. Also, please ignore my friend @tsybka, he is retarded.
yeah, you are not whitelisted I guess. Only whitelisted people get to propose. I've been trying in the discord channel but no one has proposed yet. Last time I insisted for a week for an Israel-Lebanon market and it finally worked.
Both ISW and Deepstate maps show orcs controling Hryshyne definitively. Can someone else check with fresh eyes? So resolution can be proposed. But, as my eyes can see, it seems definitive