GeopoliticsMarkets
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
September 309%
February 28<1%
March 31<1%
January 31<1%
$954,199 Vol.
May 31, 2026
September 30$35K Vol.9%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/CwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
I dont understand the map, whats that blue-dotted blurry area to the left of Stepho??
It is an area that used to be underwater until a dam was destroyed in 2024
Need may market
fr they're so slow with these.
Without Starlink the Russians cant play WoW and jackoff to pornhub all day, the capture should happen way faster than expected
Based, but wishfull thinking.
Okay that's funny
No starlink for Ruzzia nazis, no capture
Next one to be liberated
*Already liberated just waiting for ISW to run out of copium
"liberate"? russia leaves just ruins
Liberated from soviet-era modernist architecture
your portfolio looks perfect now, you deserved it :)
ez bet, soon
yeah, ez for Ukraine to counter-attack
This is next after Myrnohrad
Next which will be occupied?
in what timeframe?
zero
It almost captured
Wonder how this will go!
zero
"How much cope does a man need?"-Lev Tolstoy
This is Jan 21st 2026, last ukr troops are retreating in the north [link removed]
Using ISW as a reference is ridiculous..!! They are doing pro-Ukraine/West propaganda, not objective assessments.
Better to use Russia Today, eh?
according to Russia you captured Kiev in 3 days
Really easy money
yes we see, post your loss
At latest ISW MAP update they marked territorial gain be ukranians that wasnt even Russian according ISW themselves. What a scammers
Rebalance some on February and you will win . Trust me
Suriyak and AMK are bullish AF with their mapping. Even some pro Russian mappers admit that there is still Ukrainian presence in the city
You will sell your positions. Believe me
The infamous "No" holder @leCommissaire sold almost all of his shares ahahhahaha
Dumpling is still on No side
ISW maps stopped showing administrative borders of the cities recently. That's going to be a problem to resolve
Administrative borders are irrelevant for resolution. ISW uses specific geolocation points for the settlement. If the city center point is red it is a Yes. Oracle UMA also cross references with DeepState for clarification if needed. This boundary talk is just FUD from No holders.
Man read the market rules. "The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line."
AI slop bot
I just hope than ISW have no choice but to admit this loss. After that hell no Im gonna enter market that depends on this scammers
I didn't know. That's my first time
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
September 30 · Yes
Amount
$
By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use.