GeopoliticsMarkets
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 3156%
June 306%
December 31<1%
November 30<1%
$2,550,453 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31$222K Vol.56%
2%
June 30$264K Vol.6%
1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Easiest money ever
No is a BOND. Ukraine has been gaining land in the past few months in Lyman direction.
says a guy with $70
A man can dream😃
lol, I seen such coments here every month since the fall 2025, and more than six month later it is still NO
bet on your beliefs
polyesc saving my sani
stop plese
its over its going up again
不会
So good to see schizo TSYBKA lose money by pretending to be an expert.
he work in ukr army .
tsybko oleksandr
sasha you're a jeweler (c)
all good
soon
stop war no more
wen
ez money for June
No way they will even enter it within 30 days
April market is due. I don’t think we’ll see any sort of major action from the Russians until April-May. According to ISW as well. I’m not in the discord but can someone propose it please
Let's go! Painting's back in fashion.
April, May, and June markets please!
early.
why does Kostyantynivka have a december market tho
Because it can never be taken and you aren't paying attention
Read Mashovets summary on Lyman. GG team yes
There is nothing in that summary that says Russia won't capture the train station before March 31...
This market doesn't need the full capture of the city.
If you’ve read that summary and still think consolidation across train tracks is possible within 2 months in the height of winter, you deserve to lose your money
Copeovets summary
The vernal equinox is March 20. Not sure how that's the "height of winter".
ISW's January 28, 2026, update reports a Russian assault on Lyman right now, though no map changes are shown (yet). [link removed] Per ISW's official ArcGIS map Russia's red shaded area is about 650 meters from the Lyman railroad station.
That red shading happened a month ago.
ISW added a new red bulge 2 days ago. [link removed] ; There is a Russian report that the train station is already taken too. The assault is ongoing, we'll see how ISW updates in the next couple of weeks.
Sure, I think Feb is likely, at least 50%, now that they're active on that front again. The problem we still have is map lag. I must admit I'm a bit confused why December was so fast and January was so slow. December was 2-3x the progress of January.
[link removed]
Yes
please ask poly about entering in Sviatohirsk market. I think it will be interesting
Lyman sitrep: [link removed]
Krasny Lyman holds
Please ask in Discord to create a February market
soon add
thanks