This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Zalziznychna vultysia and Avtoshlyakh T 0406 in Udachne by July 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Udachane+Intersection.jpg Udachne Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Udachane1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Ro5hfJCETd4f4VU79 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
i like to bet on 92% because comments never age like wine
According to Russian milblogs Putin dead during gay sex with Okee and jsjr
According to Russian milbloggers Udachne has fallen
lol. Source?
Can't find any source, but this guy been buying Yes since yesterday. I'm intrigued
No chance
Just noticed ISW map put the whole village in the gray zone yesterday. Gonna be tight but agreed, don't think there's enough time left.
The yellow zone means nothing. It can stay like that for several months.
Who are you listening to? This update on deepstate was a few days ago and it doesn't even put the right point in the gray zone, lol
ISW takes a lot of time to change the map, if it's not even in yellow now, it's unlikely that in 8 days it turns red
Pro ukrainian mapping deepstate showing it in the gray zone means AFU is pulling out
Did you wake up after 12 hours?
deep state has already painted the village into the grey zone
It's almost impossible, I looked at all the war correspondents, they only write about the beginning of the battles NEAR the village, given that war correspondents are always very far ahead of ISW. It's literally a 99/1 market
hahahah in deep state the critical point is already gray zone
Grey doesn’t mean it's captured, urban zones take way more time to deal with, and ISW is mate af concerning the updating. So realisticly, you have like, 4 days for the point to be captured and pray that ISW update it fast enought. On other markets the city has been taken for a week already and still not painted in red on the ISW. Truth doesn’t matter. Timing does
I just want to sell it for more than I bought it for
lol
Even Podolyaka says that they have only just approached Udachnoye, and ISW reacts to his words with a week's delay. Capturing the necessary point in 2 weeks is something close to impossible
There is no use explaining to idiots who do not understand such markets
You are right
Budem schitat' eto neplohoy popitkoy zbit' cenu bratan.
"Yes" is very underpriced. Udachne is important for Russia - it makes it easier to attack Pokrovsk from both sides later. Russia is doing the same in Kostiantynivka region with Yablunivka that will be also captured soon. Yes, there is some counteroffence in both places but the cities will be captured soon. It is half red on some other maps
What is interesting is that Yunakivka in Sumy region has the highest odds to be captured. But Ukraine has the most power in Sumy region and they are already recovering some territory. Markets are priced incorrectly. Consider buying more "Yes" on Udachne and thank me later
It doesn't matter if it's Russian capture it or not. ISW is a pro-Ukrainian source, it will be painted over in August
I understand you, but you can see how it works with Yunakivka. This intersection under Russians is about two weeks, but still yellow
You are the guy who comes to the market for the first time and thinks he is the smartest. Half of the village has been red on almost all maps for three months. If it were another village, the price would be about 80, but there is almost no movement here
omg...
buy more yes
Thank you for the lesson. Anyway, it's the last time to buy yes, guys. Because today the map will be updated, there will be more territory captured and it could be this intersection
it's already updated
Ukrainian counter offensive in Udachne incoming
Western road into udachne has been cut off
Advances in udachne and nearby muravka
According to who, no signs of it at all
Yes, advance of AFU
Udachne isn’t their priority. It will take much more time to capture
what? this is the most active section of the front. and Russia tries as hard as possible to occupy this settlement to cut Pavlohrad-Pokrowsk highway
The doomed will be defeated. (c) The King and the Jester
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