This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Slavy Ploshcha Volytsia x Pryozerna Volytsia in Yampil', Donetsk Oblast province, by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'1.png Intersection Location in Yampil': https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'2.png Yampil' Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Yampil'3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/xU3HDneXX384ce4w6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify., but it qualifies. okay
Betting on this is horrible. Actually disgusting.
The Yampil has not been captured yet, as confirmed not only by the maps but also by military reports from both sides. Anyone who disputes this resolution can easily make a profit!
Quickly! You still have time.
The provision that the change must last through the full ISW cycle is retarded.
Russia has already taken over the intersection of Slava Square and Priozernaya Square in Yampil. I don't understand what the market is waiting for. When will the bet be closed, or are we really waiting for the 30th?
Waiting for the second confirmation (rule inserted after Myrnohrad scam by ISW employee). We wait for as long as it takes for ISW to get back from Thanksgiving and to publish a *finalised* update for the day. BTW, that technically means that this market could resolve no :D .
I don't know, but can you tell me what happened to Mirnograd? I've been hearing about it everywhere, but I don't understand the details.
15 Nov will Russians take myrnohrad. Someone with access put through Russian capture of the intersection after everyone had left the office. Market resolved yes. The change was of course reversed the next day, but there’s no way to unwind here. Yes price went from something like 0.4! Hencecwhy ISW changed their methodology (they now publish when the day is finalised) and why Polymarket want two of those finalisations, just to be sure.
You people are absolutely fcking sick. I wish I could bet on each one of you dying painfully from cancer while your relatives watch. Fcking disgrace of a human race each and every one of you who bet on these things.
poshel nahuy suka
Agreed. I can’t think of a worst crime than betting on when an online map will get updated.
Lyman and Siversk next
shakhove next
Tu shturmuesh
not in november sadly
captured
Its done already. Ministry of defence RF confirmed on the 20th of November. So did Yuri Podalyaka.
already i guess&
Anyone know the answer to this (I understand what's fair and right, just wondering what the actual situation is)? If ISW marks Russia as taking the point on 30 Nov, can the market be proposed "No" and successfully resolved because the change hasn't persisted through 2 full daily update cycles?
capture will happens on 30 then and it needs to stay till dec 1 completely if so then it ends up in Yes
It doesn’t work like that. If they mark November 30th in red, it will be resolved as YES anyway it will just happen on December 1-2
Can we rename these markets from will russia capture to "Will ISW paint it red" it makes more sense, since Russia capture the place but all people here are just betting on will isw paint it?
Infiltration areas a new kind of scam
ISW is Russian propaganda. Polymarket should use only statements from Zelenskyy and Syrskyi for resolution.
Russian sources have different information regarding Yampol, and ISW has completely different information. So this is definitely not Russian propaganda
Bad call Polymarket: ISW is now beyond compromised, and so infiltration should count.
Just noticed something. With the teleporting Russian infiltration north of Pokrovsk, a slice of it is shaded dark blue for Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in Past 24 Hours. But how can one gain what was not lost, but merely an infiltration? ISW's internal logic treats infiltrations as confirmed Russian capture.
there is no way ISW will update it before end of the month lyman isnt updated for few weeks now
When ISW insiders buy this market, they will instantly update the map to red.
true XD
just need to wait one day before market ends or so and then sell
ISW scammers haven't bought it yet - yes
Discount on yes.
pain
Yampil marked as inflitration area hahaha
very funny