This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Hryshyne by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Hryshyne is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Almost forgot about this market. Let's request someone to propose
got banned from poly square, dm me in the future if you want me to propose things
got it, thanks you
hey @dumplingBMF how much money do u need more before resolving? 40$? 50? even more? stop it plz
and bromley is your friend i guess
You know that only whitelisted people can propose, right? Which effectively means Tysbka.
On the subject of which, go and suggest something like this on Discord https://discordapp DOT com/channels/710897173927297116/775426364600877097/1448093013464055991
I dont have discord, why dont u do it yourself?
(1) So quit whinging if you're not willing to do the bare minimum to address it, (2) that's what the link is.
why u decided to teach me what to do? I know that dumpling can propose and instead of doing this he came and continue to buy 995c, so did u for 10k having 200 pnl total - you are friends
You're the one who mentioned me, which is why I'm talking to you. Does it not seem unlikely to you that an a/c with $200k P&L is somehow shepherding one with $300? Anyway, first I've heard of someone other than Tysbka being involved and able to resolve here - good news.
can anyone propose? it’s been already full cycle after first ISW update on 17th and 40 hours passed
Syrskyi just confirmed a counterattack today! Ukraine actually just took back 56 square kilometers around Hryshyne and Kotlyne. The "invincible" Russian advance is stalling out because they’re losing 1,700 guys a day. They aren't taking Hryshyne this year.
wtf, why do infiltrations count? rules should be the same across those bets
That's why you gotta be careful and read the rules on all the markets you bet on:/
Because this is an Enter market, not a Control market. AFAIK, all of the other market types are about controlling some/all/a point, and those require Russian control shading. But even ISW doesn't dispute that infiltration means that Russians are present, they just don't think it means Russian control.
why did the market move before the update
ahahahahahahahah
genuine questions you don't have to be a dick, congrats on your $400 i guess?
price moved after update
It didnt, live map was updated before it moved
When? middle of the night, i could be wrong but it stayed at 50 earlier in the night i didnt even look at isw but it would have been higher
Nah bro right before the dump, someone noticed, started buying/selling and ppl got noti of price action so people caught on
people bought after Creamy's update I guess and it stayed around 50%, then ISW updated and 100% immediately. My cash was locked in siversk so I miss
the price spiked before the update wtf is it insider ?
GGs, lost in this market
Good luck getting through the great drone wall of Ukraine
sucker
SUUUUUCKEEEEERRRRRRRR
ISW: "A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Hryshyne toward Pokrovsk.[67]"
Ruzzia taking it over in less than [link removed] yes! I repeat: Russia is about to…
Great ruzzian army will have all of Hrshne in three days!
in reality, they are already fighting for Hrysne's northern areas but we don't talk about reality here.
buy more yes
I will if ISW shows infiltration inside the city. For now, doesn't seem good
when ISW shows, then the price will already be 95+ cents. Better get in early!
I reload map frequently, can try to catch early
It's getting tiresome ISW.
Hryushyno will soon be Grishino
gouda (cheese obviously)
the russians are already in Hryshyne, betting on ISW
The fighting in that whole sector is slow, grinding warfare, not a blitzkrieg. The Ukrainians are defending every square meter fiercely. Russia might get closer, but they won't capture a major fortified area like Hryshyne in the next five weeks.
The rules say yes if "Russia captures any territory of Hryshyne." ANY territory. The assessed infiltration area is already right outside the Hryshyne marking. Unless there is a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Forces, the slow Russian advance is going to continue.