GeopoliticsMarkets
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?
June 3058%
April 30<1%
March 31<1%
May 31<1%
$192,547 Vol.
May 31, 2026
June 30$15K Vol.58%
2%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
ВЕЛИКОЕ СЕЛО 4 ДОМА СТОИТ 4 МЕСЯЦА ПОДРЯД. ПЫПА ИТОГИ
DeepState (pro UA) reported RU entering in their newest update a few hours ago.
They reported that several days ago already
Different attack, further into the city
Divgen stopped updating their map. Russia announced a ceasefire for a few days.
14 разів намагалися потіснити наших воїнів... у районах... Новоолександрівка... - official statement from ukranian forces
If you are trying to answer me, the international language is English. I don't know Ukrainian.
russians have already entered it
maybe you're right
maybe not
Anyway, you were right when you were in the NO position :)
– Telle gram channel "divgen" 01 may says: Novoaleksandrovka is fully captured. – Deepstate says: This is not true. But they updated their map 01 may and confirm that Russian forces entered the south of the village. – ZSU & liveuamap . com also today 02 may confirms the presence of the enemy near Novooleksandrivka and others village Waiting for an update from ISW
maybe today, maybe after 3 months
3 months sounds like ISW.
It seems you were right. Minimum one month doesn't update
Yeah, I'm surprised myself. I thought that we could get some geolocation by the end of may. But we might not...
Now we are not talking even about capturing, only enter. And according to DeepState, they have entered couple days ago. We just wait ISW update.
We're literally waiting for this for the second month in a row...
Not exactly. Only on May 1st, Russian and Ukrainian sources talked about Alexandrovka and updated their maps.
Yeah, I have noticed that ISW will pick these news 1 or 2 weeks later usually.
Exactly in early April Deepstate showed Novooleksandrivka as grey zone
now, there red zone.
Of course they will, because they did capture it, there is just no footage by now to ISW update the map ;)
is russian troops already in this location?
Actually, yes. But ISW lives in its own world. Essentially, you’re not betting on what’s happening on the front lines—you’re betting on when exactly ISW will update their map and how they’ll choose to color it.
It's already taken (not just infiltrated), should take a few days max for isw to mark as infiltrated. Possibly today's update
sometime, they updating after few months...
No, they don't if the other pro UA mappers confirm and there is video evidence
hope I lose this one
why
I believe it is a matter of time until the end of the month, when the footage of russian troops in Vasylivka or Novooleksandrivka will come in. Many reports indicate russian presence either on the outskirts, or straight up infiltration (and am talking about ukrainian and russian sources). So now it is more of a waiting game.
DeepState update, they got more of Hryshyne and almostly enter the Novoolexandrivka
It doesn't matter what deep state does 😂
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?
June 30 · Yes
Amount
$
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