This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovska oblast) by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Novopavlivka shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures any of the specified territory, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Waiting for Tsykba to jump out and telling everyone that she resolved this and shes on the whitelist and we should be so grateful to her and love her and kiss her feet and ooh shes so cool shes one the LIST 🐔 🔫
half of the town is infiltrated? really
is it a joke?
ISW at its best lol. It will stay "infiltrated" for weeks for sure (like Kupiansk and Lyman)
I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW I HATE ISW
We hate ISW
Sold my YES for 90 cents. To be clear, I'm pretty sure that russian troops are already in the village. It's just became risky since ISW decided to paint it as infiltration because in this case they can keep it as infiltration for a really long time. Check Kupiansk as an example. 10% gain doesn't worth the risks guys
That's it i'm contacting my guys on the ground and telling them to plant a fucking flag on the ground every square meter so these retard stop coping, jesus
yeah nigga let me just infiltrate your village with a fucking TANK, that way i'm supper sneaky
lol 100%
Institute for the Scamming of War just colored it as "infiltration". Fuck those retards - petition to get AMK mapping as a resolution source for future markets
they will rug us with the infliration cope won't they ?
Typical Infiltration
Lets see if the IScamW put a cope infiltration lauer on the map for this geo
Institue for the Scamming or War-market played their magic again
you guys are quick lol
Russians geolocated in middle of the village
gg notards
This definitely won't happen in November
they have already entered it, just need for the Institute for the Scamming of War to update
They did not enter Novopavlovka, let alone capture anything there. The Yellow Institute for the Study of War notes the Russian army's claimed successes, but these have not been confirmed. In this regard, it is better to trust the deepstate maps, which best reflect the advances of Russia/Ukraine. According to deepstate, the closest Russian troops spotted near Novopavlovka are 3 km from Novopavlovka, and the closest territory under the Russian army's firm control is almost 5 km away. These advances may take them more than a month
"better trust DeepCopeMap" Lol, lmao even
Why would you trust Deepstate when the resolution criteria is the ISW map? You realize a lot of areas currently marked red on ISW are not even in the grey zone on Deepstate?
Also note the specific wording: the market asks if Russia will capture 'ANY territory' of Novopavlivka. Not 'the main territory' or 'the city center' - but ANY territory. This clearly includes all parts within administrative boundaries, including that second polygon. The word 'any' is deliberately inclusive
You can see on the map the second polygon to the northeast, which is part of Novopavlivka
and?
The second polygon is part of Novopavlivka - they share the same street grid, it's within the administrative boundaries, and it's not labeled as a separate settlement. If Russia captures that second polygon (turns red on ISW), the market should resolve YES because it's capturing territory of Novopavlivka. The market asks if Russia will 'capture any territory of Novopavlivka' - not just the main/first polygon. That second polygon IS Novopavlivka territory, so capturing it would satisfy the market criteria. This is why polygon-based interpretation is problematic - settlements aren't defined by single polygons on ISW maps
👋 👋 resolve myrno
This really does feel like free money
Don't mix with Novopavlivka near Porkovsk, it's another one
Yeah I know, but the Russians are already extremely close to the southern outskirts, just north of Ivanivka and Filya. Wouldn't be surprised if this gets resolves within a week.
Do you know what rasputitsa is? ;)
radov claimed that they entered but shhhh