This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Sofiivka by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Sofiivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Did they enter?
What time of day do they usually update the map?
No set time - I've seen 13:30 and 18:00. And not at all, as recently, but that's rare.
13:30 eastern time? So tomorrow between 13:30 and 18:00?
hes so predictable and stupid, the man comes straight ahead and hes gonna get hurt
Someone propose
early
When then?
Big THANKS nafo losers
comisar vsegda nash bil
on ckriptovoy petyx
nu skript yavno horoshiy
nash eto chey?
4 real tho what happened?
nothing. Just keep buying NO
Prymorski looks taken over just to the left . Need the Commisioner on it!
i didnt hear no geolocation
we need February 15
idi nah
why is there so much fluctuation in this market??
There is one new Russian guy (Decisive-Page) who doesn't know yet how these markets work.
Bless Putin for these people. I hope he keeps sending them here.
Ukr confirmed RU taking positions on outskirts of town.
Map [link removed]
Zarathustra has spoken!
Sofivka and Toretske are close to each other. There is no reason for the strongly different bets on their capture by the Russians (65% vs 23%).
In reality one is mostly under Russian control while the other is not. The bet is on whether ISW accepts the reality within this month or not.
There is a river between the two settlements
Nobody really knows which Sofiivka polymarket thinks in their head. They could decide it's a different one, and where is your bet then?
I sent them picture of sofiivka and asked for this market. Most of us know which Sofiikva is being talked about here
Maybe. But "know" is impossible. If polymarket decides, they can add a note saying it is a different Sofiivka. So, nobody knows.
If polymarket decides they can also give all of us 1000$ today. That's a very bad argument
Where the fuck is Sofivka located on the map?
North of Shakhove.
Sofiivka, Donets'ka oblast', UKR
Thank you, must be colored in red in order to resolve to yes?
Infiltration zone also counts
Once again the rules do not say which Sofiivka. Google Maps finds 4 at least. One is very west of active area, so probably not that.