GeopoliticsMarkets
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
$5,018,242 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
June 30, 2026$4M Vol.1%
RulesMarket Context
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Russian parliament passes bill allowing Putin to invade foreign countries The new measure arrives amid fears the Kremlin might be ready to test the West’s commitment to NATO. [link removed]
polyesc just cleaned up my whole workflow
Russia bogged in Ukraine, economy in shambles from sanctions, no capacity for NATO war.
+15 rub
how does it feel to be that stupid
lets see
I do not think that Putin will be stupid enought to touch nato territory
What will happen to him for seizing the Baltics? Will the European cuckolds express concern?)
lol are you dumb or something bro
So bet your money against me, smart guy.)
We are going to have serious problems if this market resolves to yes.
Is it going to be another major holiday?
They probably don't have the capability to invade for the time being; their supplies can't keep up.
Vanga predicted that Volodymyr would unite all the Slavic nations together...
loose
Throughout the day on Friday, Estonian border guards saw more active activity and movement of armed groups on the Russian side in the Saatse Boot area [link removed]
I dont think the money going to mean sl
Before February 22, 2022, 95% of people didnt believe that Russia would invade Ukraine
Come on they are struggling to take Dombas not to talk about NATO
Anyone sensible believed it before the invasion actually began
Most people were not sensible.
The Ukrainian army is far stronger than the European NATO. It has a million soldiers with modern warfare experience.
This is absolutely impossible. The "Zapad 2025" "exercises" involved 16,000 soldiers and inflatable aircraft. 98% of the combat-ready army is in Ukraine.
nothing ever happens
[link removed]
Estonia has accused Russia of violating its airspace, claiming three supersonic Russian fighter jets entered its airspace in an “unprecedented and brazen” incursion. The claim on Friday prompted immediate condemnation from NATO and European countries, who called it a “reckless” and “dangerous provocation”, but the Russian Ministry of Defence denied the allegation. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the three MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace “over the Gulf of Finland” in the north for 12 minutes, adding that he had summoned the charge d’affaires at the Russian embassy over the violation.
Y el sobrevuelo en espacio aereo sobre Estonia por aviones Rusos? considero que puede esto pasar a mayores
You folks on crack who are voting 'Yes'
Absolutely
If they actually choose it, they'll hit the jackpot.
happening brother
Yes, I see already russian tanks with bears, vodka and seledka. And thousands of soldiers in ushanka attacking.
ffdfdf
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
June 30, 2026 · Yes
Amount
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