This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia withdraws all conventional combat units from Syria by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. This market refers only to conventional Russian military units operating under the Ministry of Defense, such as ground forces, air forces, or naval personnel. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) such as Wagner Group, military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to "Yes," provided there are no conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
no at 90c was such a steal
I can't breathe
Russia needs forces in ukraine
finally no is at a fair value
US and Russia agreed that Syria will be US and Ukreine will be Russia, as US try to earn land for israel , and Russia try to get back Ukreine and try to prove his own old sovereignty in slav country . Good job ... Problem was US promises to Ukreine . Last scene in oval office covered truth . So you can see future now
How tf is Syria for Russia lmfao they just lost the war. Their enemies took the government, Israel has invaded from the south, and I’m sure Turkey will continue to press in the north. The Kurds are with the US. Where exactly does that leave Russia?
Russia fight with Ukranian soldiers but all of west technologies in Ukreine. Syria was an invaded land for Russia . But according to Russia and also Acoording to world Ukraine was land piece of Russia. If Russia withdraw from Syria it means Russia withdrawed from an invaded land. But if Russia withdraw from Ukraina it means Russia lost a war. Otherside , US and israel used some wardogs to get syria for israel growing without loss any soldier. they supplied this wardogs from Turkey . So war came very cheap for them. They support Turkey because of it . Now wardogs end their missions. Support will be ceased . Kurds will get lands ( despite of Turkey ) and a few years later They will give a piece to Israel . as it is same with arabs in after WW1 .. Arabs fighted with Turks , got lands and give a piece to jewishes to build new Israel. Jews didnt loss any soldier with this way.
So Russia should not loss war in Ukraine. Russia wanted to make certain result in Ukraine. US walk to an economic crisis. US wanted to make result certain also. They agreed in a hidden peace: Russia will give Syria to US, US will give Ukraine to Russia without fight. Russia hold its own promise . It wait US to do a step . US replied it . We watched a scene from oval office for this step
FYI, as per the rules a single garrison or small detachment of the Russian armed forces in syria would resolve this market to no. That's all it takes
l. The presence of private military contractors (PMCs) such as Wagner Group, military advisors, or special operations forces will not disqualify the market from resolving to "Yes," provided there are no conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria
you just proved what I said. "No conventional Russian military units actively operating in Syria" means even a single Russian armed forces unit active in syria will resolve this to no. Who said anything about Wagner?
if you researched this even a bit you'd know that Khmeimim security for example is done by PMC "Redut". This is why i'm more invested here than in "naval base", because in naval base market there is no mention of PMCs. Knowing how Russia operates, leaving some PMCs and withdrawing all conventional units is very likely
you should also consider what "actively operating" means in terms of this market :)
the air force pilots there are members of the russian armed forces
would very likely trigger an uma mess in the tartus market too, this is a straight upgrade for no aa far as im concerned
this market literally has the same odds as russia withdrawing from tartus only by the same resolution date, so it is naturally +EV. Withdrawing ALL conventional combat units a month from now is even just logistically speaking very unlikely, that's not even considering the fact Russian talks with Damascus on retaining the bases are proceeding just fine and the bases remain one of the most important geopolitical assets of the Kremlin ever
[link removed].eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/02/24/syria-eu-suspends-restrictive-measures-on-key-economic-sectors/
EU lifts some of Syrian sanctions. Guess what that means for future of russian bases?
@[link removed] HELP PLS
Khmeimim is being droned as we speak and this market still thinks Russia leaving is 10% ICANT
It’s official: Putin lost Syria According to Al-Hal, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani said that all contracts with Russia will not be renewed, and Syria will not be subordinated to any regional axis. [link removed]
that's very bullish news for the "Russia withdraws from syria by 2067" market!
Russian cargo ships Sparta and Sparta II with evacuated military equipment from the port of Tartous in Syria. Source: Sky News
yes is due for a correction, "NO" on the "Russia abandons naval base by July" market has spiked to the mid 70s
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Russian military equipment has been removed from Syria, as satellite images show an empty Tartus port following visits by logistics ships Sparta and Sparta II days ago. (Clash Report TG)
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Stick in a fork in it.
A condition of the easing of sanctions has been the expulsion of the Russian military presence. [link removed]
Military Informant on TG: Most likely, the ships will be used to remove property and equipment that has accumulated in the port during the withdrawal of the Russian contingent from the rest of Syria.