This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI. Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
not this time
this was an obvious market
should have bonded harder :(
Time is tight
NO
Restructuring is needed before equity, that market before April is at 60% while this is at 30. Something’s not adding up
ChatGPT: Overall Timeline: If there’s alignment from the board and stakeholders, this process could be completed in as little as 3-6 months. However, more complex issues, like the need to adjust OpenAI's capped-profit model, or additional negotiations, could extend the timeline beyond that. Given Sam Altman's public statements about not taking equity, this would also likely require careful public communication, adding more time to the process.
It hasn't even gone past the first stage right now, which is board approval...
1. Board and Stakeholder Approval (Weeks to Months). 2. Legal Structuring (Weeks to Months). 3. Valuation and Allocation (Weeks to Months). 4. Equity Vesting Schedule (Immediate or Over Time).
Also, why would they be in a rush to give him equity before 2024??? He's already the CEO for years. They can wait until 2025...
wrong, it's not confirmed BEFORE 2024
He will take equity, but it won’t happen in 2024. These things take months, and he will take equity in 2025
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Prob not