Prior to the disruptions caused by the Houthi attacks in late 2023, the Suez Canal experienced an average daily transit of approximately 72 vessels. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 7 Day moving average of the Suez Canal reaches or exceeds 70 vessels on any listed date between March 8, and June 30, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch platform, specifically the data listed for the “7 Day moving average” for Suez Canal: Daily Transit Calls (see: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/eventc1000000). If relevant IMFportwatch data becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be used. If data for the listed data range has not been published by July 15, 12:00 PM ET (noon), and the conditions for a “Yes” resolution have not been met, this market will resolve to “No”.
why has no one resolved this yet
Excess capacity, Egyptian subsidies, better insurance premiums, and EU and ME economic incentives to get ships back on the canal. Latest weak of data is notching past 40 ships for a few days, with 7 day trend about where it was a year ago. Any nice uptick in volume through the remainder of May makes this a lock.
Ive read it, suez canal authority and Egyptian officials met with heads of all major shippers, then they implment the insurance subsidy, now suez canal authority ship count improving in latest weeks data. All good signs so far.
I certainly wouldn't want to be betting 90% odds that this doesn't happen in light of improving evidence of some degree of recovery lol
well this not only about costs. You're talking about normal incentives for an economic player, but that doesn't mean that shippers will use the Suez canal. There will be a slight increase, but we won't return to previous levels, because a certain amount of time is needed at various levels, and, above all because there are still tensions in the region
Again, W/W improvement, economic incentives to make up for insurance premium inflation, large economic incentives by ME nations and European importers.. Im not going to explain betting to you, you must have really strong thesis to bet at 85% odds.
All I will say is ship volumes on the resolution links page shows Suez traffic flow now cracking 40 for multiple days in the 7 week avg. Much better than a month ago, and still 41 days to go (35 unique sets of 7 day rolling average).. may the odds be in your favour :)
Trump: huties agree to stop attacking ships [link removed]